Is India committing a blunder by siding with Russia?
The firm stated that while the recently imposed 50% U.S. tariff on Indian goods 'is in our view the least of the country's worries,' the 'sudden shift in tone and engagement' between Washington and New Delhi is seen as more concerning.
The firm stated that U.S. President Donald Trump has 'singled out India for Russian oil purchases,' prompting India to respond firmly, calling U.S. actions 'unjust and unreasonable' and openly defending its trade with Russia.
Bernstein highlighted that trade talks now appear 'suspended' and that India seems 'unfazed,' even as reports circulate about Prime Minister Narendra Modi's planned visit to China and a potential visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Recalling recent optimism, Bernstein said that as recently as February, talk of doubling U.S.-India trade to $500 billion and reaching a deal by fall 2025 had cheered investors.
But instead of reduced tariffs, India now faces '25% (then 50%) tariffs.'
The analysts stressed that 'India's merchandise exports to U.S. are 18x that of Russia,' while Russian exports to India are 'fragmented' and largely energy-related.
Oil discounts from Russia, they noted, are modest given the extra refining required, asking: 'Are these extra $2-3 really worth the diplomatic shift?'
Bernstein concluded with a pointed question: 'Is it worth the risk to protect some industries while closing doors for all others to sell? Or it makes more sense to open up to a developed country, where export opportunities will always trump the incoming imports?'
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