The new politics of Israel

Politico

3 days ago

GENERATION GAP — The questions were simple enough.
Would you have voted to oppose sending weapons to Israel (as more than half of Senate Democrats recently did)? How do you think the next administration should handle our relationship with Israel? Do you think it's time to recognize a Palestinian state?
But Pete Buttigieg, a top 2028 Democratic presidential prospect who was queried on Pod Save America on Sunday, still dodged them. His responses, in which he discussed a two-state solution and opposition to Trump, elicited an angry and dismissive response online, in particular from progressives.
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), himself a potential 2028 candidate, posted in response on X 'we need moral clarity, not status quo.' Ben Rhodes, a former deputy national security adviser to President Barack Obama, said, 'Pete is a smart guy, but I have absolutely no idea what he thinks based on these answers.'
The frustration with (and mockery of) Buttigieg's answers online lays bare the degree to which perceptions about Israel have changed over the past two years, and how America's relationship with Israel is set to become a more animating factor than ever in Democratic primaries in 2026 and 2028.
Buttigieg has been roundly praised for his foray into new media and 'bro podcasts,' platforms where the party has largely been missing in action in recent years. But the viral moment on Israel from his Pod Save America interview — an otherwise safe space for Democrats — makes clear that even the party's strongest communicators must now contend with a newly reshaped party landscape on the issue of the war in Gaza.
In his questions, podcast host Jon Favreau pointed directly to the shift within the party — at the end of July, the majority of Senate Democrats voted in favor of two bills that would block the sale of automatic weapons to Israel and would block the sale of $675 million in munition kits and bombs. Just a few months earlier, in April, only 15 Democrats voted to block similar transfers.
It's a dramatic departure from the past, when the default party position was nearly unqualified support for Israel and those who broke with that stance — typically House progressives — were in a distinct minority. But it's a reflection of the new Democratic politics surrounding Israel, a directional change that has taken place with remarkable velocity since Hamas' brutal attack in October 2023.
In the aftermath of that tragedy, exactly half of Americans (50 percent) approved of Israel's military action in Gaza, compared to 45 percent who disapproved. But since then support has eroded significantly — in a July Gallup poll, just 32 percent approved of the military action, the lowest point since Gallup first asked the question in November 2023. While support for Israel remains stable (and high) among Republicans, it has cratered among Democrats — just 8 percent of Democrats approve of Israel's military action in Gaza, down from 36 percent just after the attacks.
The bottom has fallen out of conservative Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's popularity as well. While Netanyahu remains popular among Republicans, among Democrats his favorability rating has plummeted to just 9 percent. That's only slightly higher than President Donald Trump's approval ratings among Democrats.
A June Quinnipiac University poll found something similar. When asked whether their sympathies lie more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians based on what they know about the situation in the Middle East, just 12 percent of Democrats said the Israelis, while 60 percent said the Palestinians. Twenty-nine percent had no opinion.
These rock-bottom levels of support explain the subtle, but increasingly noticeable, recalibrations that are taking place among Democratic candidates and elected officials. It reveals that traditional solid support for Israel is no longer politically sustainable in a restive party where the energy is on the left and among its youngest members — the two quarters where sympathy for Palestinians and support for an independent Palestinian state is highest.
That's a change even from 2024, the first post-terror attack American election, when Israel policy was one of the defining features of House campaigns and the Democratic presidential primary. Back then, pro-Israel advocacy groups helped knock off two progressive incumbents who were critical of Israel in primaries, and President Joe Biden continued to show support for Israel's military campaign against Hamas fighters even in the face of an energetic 'uncommitted' effort designed to protest his policies.
At the time, support for Israel's military action among Democrats was in the mid-20 percent range, according to Gallup. But in the upcoming 2026 primary season, if current party sentiment holds, the level of support will be in single digits. And there isn't much reason to expect it will return to prior levels anytime soon since the primary season will unfold on the heels of reports of mass starvation in Gaza, rising international anger toward Israel's restrictions on aid and a renewed Gaza offensive.
The effects of that low level of support for Israel within the party could be wide-ranging. It could encourage protest candidates who tie it into their message of generational change. It will inevitably reshape the stances of the 2028 presidential primary field, not to mention recharge the party platform fight at the 2028 Democratic National Convention.
What it suggests is a new normal going forward, especially because of the generational dimension to the debate. A 2024 Pew Research poll found that among Americans aged 65 and older, 47 percent said their sympathies lie entirely or mostly with the Israeli people, while just 9 percent sympathized entirely or mostly with the Palestinians.
The numbers were almost flipped with younger voters, however. One-third of adults under 30 said their sympathies were either entirely or mostly with the Palestinian people, compared to just 14 percent who said their sympathies lie entirely or mostly with the Israeli people.
They have an entirely different outlook than older Americans, whose historical frame of reference includes the Holocaust, the founding of the state of Israel, the Six Day War, the Munich Olympics, the Yom Kippur War, and other events.
Young Democrats have only known a world with Netanyahu at the head of Israel's government. They have had a steady diet of images of dead Palestinians and starving children in Gaza on social media. Against that backdrop, as Buttigieg found out this week, the recycled rhetoric of the past, in the absence of a clear stand, is no longer cutting it in his party.
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Jacqueline Munis contributed to this newsletter.
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