South Korea's winning strategy for Trump faces moment of truth

Japan Times

17 hours ago

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will be testing the limits of one of the more successful strategies of dealing with U.S. President Donald Trump when he visits the White House this month.
The summit will likely feature thorny issues including how to approach North Korea, the future of the U.S. military alliance with South Korea and the details of a $350 billion investment pledge. So far, South Korea has largely flown under the diplomatic radar, working mostly behind the scenes without some of the grand gestures seen from other leaders. The result was one of the most favorable tariff agreements, reached just before the deadline, and the upcoming meeting for Lee.
Lee's government, which took office in June, has sought to show as much flexibility as possible, to the point of "doing backflips,' according to one official familiar with the planning, who asked not to be identified to discuss confidential deliberations. While the administration in Seoul is pleased with the outcomes so far, they are conscious of the potential pitfalls of an Oval Office meeting.
Winning favorable trade terms, however significant economically, may have been easier than reaching an agreement on defense cooperation, which Seoul initially tried to make part of the tariff deal. When the two leaders meet in Washington — Korean media has reported a possible date in late August — they will champion widely divergent goals and policy preferences when it comes to their military alliance.
Defense spending, which Trump has repeatedly framed in blunt financial terms, is at the heart of the issue that includes politically fraught questions over the number of U.S. troops in South Korea and the Asian country's role in the broader regional security framework.
An American soldier during a live-fire drill with the South Korean army in February |
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"Tariff issues can ultimately be resolved with money. Security is a different matter,' said Kim Jung, a political science professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. "For South Korea to have real leverage, it should be able to say that the withdrawal of U.S. forces is also on the table. That's just not a tenable option for Koreans.'
Trump has been urging partners to ramp up spending on security and rely less on the U.S., calling South Korea a "money machine.' A key U.S. ally in Asia, the nation hosts 28,500 American troops to help deter threats from North Korea.
Defense spending
While the defense cost-sharing issue wasn't addressed by the tariff negotiators and left to the summit, a senior South Korean official earlier confirmed that the two countries are discussing expanding Seoul's defense spending in line with global trends. South Korea plans to spend 2.32% of its GDP on defense this year.
The U.S. wanted Seoul to boost defense spending to 3.8% of GDP, the Washington Post reported, citing internal government documents. Administration officials also debated insisting that South Korea publicly support deploying U.S. troops to deter China, according to the newspaper. South Korea's presidential office said Monday that negotiations for the tariff deal focused on trade issues, declining to elaborate further.
Gen. Xavier Brunson, the commander of U.S. forces in South Korea, said there's a need for changes with the American troops, emphasizing that what matters is "capabilities' rather than "numbers,' according to a report by Yonhap News.
The cost-sharing was a bone of contention for Trump during his first term. At that time, Trump asked Seoul to contribute about $5 billion to keep American military personnel in the country, well above the roughly $1 billion each year Seoul agreed to pay in a previous deal.
"For Trump, it's all about the money — that's where he's likely to lean in, hard,' said Won Gon Park, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha University in Seoul. "Even if Korea were to raise its defense contribution, the most it could offer is probably a twofold increase, but Trump has tossed out a $10 billion figure, which is outrageous, and that's exactly the kind of move he could pull again.'
While Lee's administration in Seoul is pleased with the outcomes so far with the U.S., they are conscious of the potential pitfalls of an Oval Office meeting. |
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Lee, conscious of the dynamics of dealing with Trump, has carefully cultivated their relationship since the very first phone call after his June election victory. During that conversation, they bonded by swapping stories of campaign hardships, threats to their safety, and golf. On the eve of the election, Lee said that he'd "crawl through Trump's legs if needed' to help his people.
Vacation preparations
The South Korean president spent his vacation prepping to build on that bright start at the Oval Office meeting. The weeklong retreat was held at a secluded presidential resort on Geoje Island, off the southern coast of the Korean Peninsula, which has access to a nine-hole golf course.
Lee's office didn't comment on his preparations for the summit.
If the Korean side's preparations for the trade talks are any guide, Lee's aides would have made him go through rigorous and meticulous sessions. Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan, who met Trump in the final stages of the negotiations, described studying strategies to keep him engaged and role-playing for the big event, with a colleague taking on the role of the U.S. president, including his blunt talking style.
Lee also knows, though, that he needs to present Trump with tangible wins if he hopes to bridge the gap between their defense priorities. That's where the trade negotiations offered a lot more leverage, with South Korea's key role in global supply chains from cars to chips and companies including Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, LG Energy Solution and Hyundai Motor committing billions to U.S. manufacturing.
That robust economic relationship, along with the investment pledge, helped Seoul cap the across-the-board tariffs on Korean imports at 15%, including in the crucial automotive sector.
Common ground
In defense, though, the U.S. has been pushing for "alliance modernization,' a term Washington increasingly uses in the context of a recalibration of the military partnership to address evolving threats, especially from China. Trump's aides have floated the idea of South Korea playing a larger role in regional security and hinted that Seoul should shoulder more of the financial and strategic burden.
Lee will look to maintain the credibility of South Korea's commitment to the alliance while avoiding domestic backlash over spending and perceived concessions. Navigating the security agenda will be a key test of adaptability on the global stage for a politician with deep experience in domestic maneuvering but largely untested in world affairs.
One area of diplomacy where Lee and Trump may find common ground is the approach toward North Korea, a relationship where they both are seeking a departure from the stance of their predecessors. During his inaugural speech in June, the Korean leader struck a tone of pragmatism and a willingness to restore communication with Pyongyang. Trump, himself, during his first term cultivated ties with North leader Kim Jong Un.
U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inside the demilitarized zone separating the South and North in 2019 |
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But it's unclear how receptive Kim might be to overtures either from the U.S. or South Korea. He appears to be gaining confidence on the global stage because of his growing partnership with Russia — a relationship that's believed to have aided his nuclear and missile programs.
Pyongyang has, so far, rejected Lee's outreach. On July 28, Kim Yo Jong, the leader's sister, rebuked what she called the South's "blind trust' in the U.S. and dismissed any possibility of dialogue, despite Seoul's efforts to dial down tensions. While North Korea said relations between its leader and Trump are "not bad' and hinted at potential talks, it said that any attempt to resume dialogue should start with recognizing the North as a nuclear power.
Without a clear path toward tangible progress, Trump may have little appetite to wade too deeply into the North Korea issue, especially as he's focused on other global challenges from the Middle East to trade with India and from the relationship with China to Russia's war in Ukraine. For Lee, one path could be to stress South Korea's interests aligning with the U.S.
Seoul has provided crucial intelligence on North Korea's assistance for Moscow, blowing the whistle on weapons shipments and troop deployments.
And while Lee has, so far, avoided taking a hard stance against Beijing, maintaining strategic ambiguity, Brunson has described South Korea as a "fixed aircraft carrier' facing China, underlining Seoul's growing strategic significance.
Oval optics
Lee's team is also wary of the optics inside the Oval Office. Unlike in the case of the trade talks, when South Korea was one of dozens of nations negotiating, the Oval Office meeting will put Lee firmly and singularly in the spotlight alongside Trump.
Trump, known for his unpredictability and dominant presence in one-on-one settings, has previously used such encounters to publicly pressure foreign counterparts. Back in February, he pressed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the rationale for continued U.S. support, putting Kyiv on the defensive at a particularly high-profile moment.
"As a number of foreign leaders have learned the hard way, meetings with Trump can go sideways very quickly,' said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he studies U.S. strategy in Asia.
The stakes are high. For Trump, who favors quick wins and visible gestures, the summit may serve as a test of Lee's willingness to do more. For Lee, it's a high-wire act: balancing national security demands with domestic political sensitivities, and proving he can hold his own on the global stage.
"This isn't a typical summit,' said Park at Ewha University.