Can India sustain its 50% non-fossil fuel milestone amid rising energy demands?

India Today

17-07-2025

This month, India marked a historic milestone in energy transition, achieving 50.08 per cent of its installed electricity capacity—242.78 gigawatts (GW) out of 484.82 GW—from non-fossil fuel sources, five years ahead of its 2030 target under the Paris Agreement.The achievement, hailed by Union minister Pralhad Joshi as a 'historic green leap', underscores India's accelerating shift towards clean energy, driven by solar, wind, hydro and nuclear power. Yet, as India basks in this success, significant challenges remain, and its journey offers a lens into the global energy transition, with lessons for other nations.advertisementReaching 50 per cent non-fossil fuel capacity is a remarkable feat for a developing nation with a population of 1.4 billion and rapidly growing energy demands. India's energy consumption is projected to surge 2-2.5 times by 2047, driven by industrialisation, urbanisation and rising living standards. Achieving this milestone five years early demonstrates India's ability to balance economic growth with climate commitments, positioning it as a leader among emerging economies.The milestone aligns with India's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, which include reducing emissions intensity by 45 per cent by 2030 (from 2005 levels) and achieving 50 per cent non-fossil fuel capacity. This progress, coupled with India's low per capita emissions, bolsters its global standing as a climate-conscious nation.
India's success stems from a combination of policies, technological advancements and large-scale deployment of renewable energy. Since 2014, non-fossil fuel capacity has surged from 87 GW to 242.78 GW, with solar energy leading at 94.16 GW and wind at 47.95 GW by November 2024. In 2024 alone, India added 28 GW of solar and wind capacity, followed by 16.3 GW in the first five months of 2025, reflecting an accelerated pace.Policy encouragement from the government has come in the form of programmes such as PM-KUSUM, PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana, and the National Wind-Solar Hybrid Policy. The PM Surya Ghar scheme, launched in 2024, aims to install rooftop solar in 10 million households, decentralising energy access. It has driven solar adoption in rural areas and integrated renewable energy into the grid.The government has planned transmission schemes to integrate 66.5 GW of renewable energy in states such as Rajasthan and Gujarat, with 51,000 circuit km of transmission lines and 433,500 MVA of transformation capacity planned by 2030. Solar and wind tariffs are now among the lowest globally, making renewables cost-competitive with fossil fuels. Companies such as Reliance, Adani Green Energy and Tata Power Solar have invested heavily in the sector.Despite this progress, India faces hurdles in translating installed capacity into actual power generation. While installed capacity shows a balanced mix, actual electricity generation is heavily skewed toward fossil fuels making up 73.4 per cent of the total energy generated. This is due to their higher operational consistency.Renewables account for only 24 per cent of electricity generation as coal remains the backbone. Among the primary challenges is grid integration for the green energy already generated. The grid, designed for fossil fuels, struggles with the intermittent nature of renewables. Enhancing storage (for example battery systems) and smart grids is critical. Moreover, state utilities face financial constraints, and infrastructure investments are needed to ensure grid resilience.advertisement'Energy Poverty'—the absence of reliable electricity access due to affordability issues or inadequate distribution—is a reality for millions in India. Moreover, the achievement may well be short lived as India plans to add 80 GW of coal capacity by 2032 to meet rising demand, complicating decarbonisation. Another reality is biomass-based cooking in rural areas, which continues to expose millions to toxic emissions, requiring a shift to clean alternatives.India's CO2 emissions are the third highest globally, but its per capita emissions remain low at approximately 2 tonnes per person (2023 data), compared to the United States (14.7 tonnes), China (10.2 tonnes) and the European Union (6.2 tonnes). This reflects India's developing economy status and lower historical emissions. While the US and China lead in total emissions, India's emissions intensity has decreased by 33 per cent since 2005, surpassing its NDC target. However, coal's dominance in power generation means India's total emissions continue to rise, driven by industrial growth and urbanisation.advertisementIndia's focus on non-fossil fuels began in earnest with the 2008 National Action Plan on Climate Change, which launched the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission in 2010, targeting 20 GW of solar by 2022 (later revised to 100 GW). The 2015 Paris Agreement strengthened India's commitment, with pledges to achieve 40 per cent non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030, a target overachieved by 2021. Rising energy imports, geopolitical risks and the need to mitigate climate change drove this shift. The 2021 COP26 'Panchamrit' framework, announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, set ambitious goals: 500 GW non-fossil capacity, 50 per cent renewable energy and net-zero by 2070.Globally, renewable energy adoption varies. China leads with over 1,000 GW of renewable capacity (2023), driven by massive solar and wind investments, but its coal reliance keeps per capita emissions high. The US, with 350 GW of renewables, ranks second but lags in per capita emissions reduction due to heavy fossil fuel use. Germany, a renewable energy pioneer, sources 60 per cent of its electricity from renewables (2024), benefiting from advanced grid infrastructure.Developing nations such as Brazil (60 per cent hydro-dominated renewables) and South Africa (slow renewable growth due to coal dependency) show mixed progress. India's early achievement of 50 per cent non-fossil capacity places it ahead of many peers, though its generation share lags behind leaders like Germany.advertisementSubscribe to India Today Magazine- EndsMust Watch