Latest news with #JamesKirkham
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Antarctica's brief gain in ice mass fuels climate denial
"In a development that's leaving climate alarmists scrambling, new data shows that Antarctic ice has increased in size for the first time in decades -- reversing the long-touted trend of mass loss and environmental collapse," reads a May 28, 2025 Facebook post from The Hodgetwins, US conservative commentators whom AFP has previously fact-checked. Similar narratives dismissing the impact of climate change popped up on social media after traditional media reported in early May on a study's findings about Antarctic ice sheet (archived here). The study, from March, found that between 2021 and 2023, Antarctica's ice sheet expanded and therefore did not add to global mean sea level rise. The gain did not, however, counter the overall rise observed over those years because of ice loss and warming elsewhere (archived here and here). And weather conditions -- specifically unusual precipitations, including snow and some rain in east Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula -- were the primary reason the ice sheet gained mass, the study's corresponding author and other scientists told AFP. This short-lived, partial gain does not disprove the impact of climate change on the continent, they said. Yunzhong Shen, the study's corresponding author, told AFP May 19 that the increase observed between 2021 and 2023 occurred on a "too short timescale" to be treated as a trend reversal -- or to deny the impacts of climate change in the region (archived here). The gain witnessed in Antarctica's ice sheets also seems "to stop after 2024, which needs to be determined by further study," he said. James Kirkham, a scientist with the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative scientist, concurred (archived here): "The most recent levels reported by NASA thus far in 2025 look similar to what they were back in 2020, just before the abrupt gain." When looking at Antarctic total mass balance, NASA's dataset shows a net loss in mass since 2002. In fact, that "Antarctica would experience increased snowfall in a warmer climate is entirely expected as in a warmer climate the atmosphere can hold more moisture," Kirkham said in a May 27 email. "This means that the likelihood of extreme weather (such as the heavy snowfall which caused the recent mass gain in east Antarctica) increases." Brandon Daly, who studies glaciers and ice sheets, agreed (archived here). "When climate change deniers talk about the glaciers in Antarctica, they will usually only focus on the surface of the ice sheet," he said May 28, explaining that they ignore other ice loss. "Ice in contact with the ocean is what is melting, and it will continue to melt even if precipitation over the ice sheet increases," he said. "And it is the ocean-forced melting that is currently risking ice sheet instability and sea level rise." University of Minnesota climate scientist Peter Neff said May 27 that human climate change impacts in Antarctica are already widely seen around the Antarctic Peninsula and coastal Antarctica, but have been slower to penetrate inland (archived here). The continent is "like a giant pancake with very steep edges that slow the north to south penetration of warmer air over the southern ocean," he said. Almost all of Antarctica's ice losses come from glaciers, largely in west Antarctica and the peninsula (archived here and here). Robert McKay, director of Victoria University of Wellington's Antarctic Research Centre, told AFP May 15 that scientists are mostly concerned with these sectors because they may be "near a tipping point" that could lead to greatly accelerated sea level rise (archived here). Environmental change thus takes different forms in different regions. Brief temporary offsets of overall losses through recent regional snowfalls, such as the one observed between 2021 and 2023, are unlikely to change the long-term trajectory of continent-wide ice losses, with continued warming. Additionally, weather stations -- whose data network remains scarce in the continent -- have observed long-term warming and impacts on sea level rise, albeit with very large year-to-year variability given that Antarctica holds the most variable climate in the world (archived here and here). Satellite data has recently revealed that ice sheets with enough frozen water to lift oceans some 65 metres are far more sensitive to climate change than previously suspected (archived here). The amount of ice melting or breaking off into the ocean from Greenland and west Antarctica, now averaging about 400 billion tonnes a year, has quadrupled over the last three decades, eclipsing runoff from mountain glaciers. Both polar oceans are warming, with the "Southern Ocean being disproportionately and increasingly important in global ocean heat increase," according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the leading international consortium of climate scientists (archived here). AFP has debunked other claims about the Poles, including here.
AFP
2 days ago
- Science
- AFP
Antarctica's brief gain in ice mass fuels climate denial
"In a development that's leaving climate alarmists scrambling, new data shows that Antarctic ice has increased in size for the first time in decades -- reversing the long-touted trend of mass loss and environmental collapse," reads a May 28, 2025 Facebook post from The Hodgetwins, US conservative commentators whom AFP has previously fact-checked. Image Screenshot of a Facebook post taken on May 30, 2025 Similar narratives dismissing the impact of climate change popped up on social media after traditional media reported in early May on a study's findings about Antarctic ice sheet (archived here). The study, from March, found that between 2021 and 2023, Antarctica's ice sheet expanded and therefore did not add to global mean sea level rise. The gain did not, however, counter the overall rise observed over those years because of ice loss and warming elsewhere (archived here and here). And weather conditions -- specifically unusual precipitations, including snow and some rain in east Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula -- were the primary reason the ice sheet gained mass, the study's corresponding author and other scientists told AFP. This short-lived, partial gain does not disprove the impact of climate change on the continent, they said. Short-lived reversal Yunzhong Shen, the study's corresponding author, told AFP May 19 that the increase observed between 2021 and 2023 occurred on a "too short timescale" to be treated as a trend reversal -- or to deny the impacts of climate change in the region (archived here). The gain witnessed in Antarctica's ice sheets also seems "to stop after 2024, which needs to be determined by further study," he said. James Kirkham, a scientist with the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative scientist, concurred (archived here): "The most recent levels reported by NASA thus far in 2025 look similar to what they were back in 2020, just before the abrupt gain." When looking at Antarctic total mass balance, NASA's dataset shows a net loss in mass since 2002. Image A screenshot taken on May 28, 2025 of a chart displaying Antarctica's ice mass variations since 2002, according to data gathered by NASA (NASA) In fact, that "Antarctica would experience increased snowfall in a warmer climate is entirely expected as in a warmer climate the atmosphere can hold more moisture," Kirkham said in a May 27 email. "This means that the likelihood of extreme weather (such as the heavy snowfall which caused the recent mass gain in east Antarctica) increases." Brandon Daly, who studies glaciers and ice sheets, agreed (archived here). "When climate change deniers talk about the glaciers in Antarctica, they will usually only focus on the surface of the ice sheet," he said May 28, explaining that they ignore other ice loss. "Ice in contact with the ocean is what is melting, and it will continue to melt even if precipitation over the ice sheet increases," he said. "And it is the ocean-forced melting that is currently risking ice sheet instability and sea level rise." Long trends observed University of Minnesota climate scientist Peter Neff said May 27 that human climate change impacts in Antarctica are already widely seen around the Antarctic Peninsula and coastal Antarctica, but have been slower to penetrate inland (archived here). The continent is "like a giant pancake with very steep edges that slow the north to south penetration of warmer air over the southern ocean," he said. Almost all of Antarctica's ice losses come from glaciers, largely in west Antarctica and the peninsula (archived here and here). Robert McKay, director of Victoria University of Wellington's Antarctic Research Centre, told AFP May 15 that scientists are mostly concerned with these sectors because they may be "near a tipping point" that could lead to greatly accelerated sea level rise (archived here). Environmental change thus takes different forms in different regions. Brief temporary offsets of overall losses through recent regional snowfalls, such as the one observed between 2021 and 2023, are unlikely to change the long-term trajectory of continent-wide ice losses, with continued warming. Additionally, weather stations -- whose data network remains scarce in the continent -- have observed long-term warming and impacts on sea level rise, albeit with very large year-to-year variability given that Antarctica holds the most variable climate in the world (archived here and here). Satellite data has recently revealed that ice sheets with enough frozen water to lift oceans some 65 metres are far more sensitive to climate change than previously suspected (archived here). The amount of ice melting or breaking off into the ocean from Greenland and west Antarctica, now averaging about 400 billion tonnes a year, has quadrupled over the last three decades, eclipsing runoff from mountain glaciers. Both polar oceans are warming, with the "Southern Ocean being disproportionately and increasingly important in global ocean heat increase," according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the leading international consortium of climate scientists (archived here). AFP has debunked other claims about the Poles, including here.
CTV News
2 days ago
- Politics
- CTV News
Nearly 40% of the world's glaciers are already doomed, scientists say
Hikers visit an ice cave formed at the end section of the Zinal glacier in Switzerland. Valentin Flauraud/AP via CNN Newsource The world's glaciers are in dire health with almost 40% of their total mass already doomed, even if global temperatures stopped rising immediately, a new study has found. Researchers estimate glaciers will eventually lose 39% of their mass relative to 2020, a trend that is already irreversible no matter what comes next and will likely contribute a 113-millimetre increase to global sea level rise. The loss rises to 76% if the world continues to pursue its current climate policies, which will likely fail to keep global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a paper published in the journal Science. The latter scenario could prove disastrous for countries that depend on glacial meltwater for irrigation, power and drinking water; a world in which 39% of the glacier mass is lost compared to 76% is the 'difference between being able to adapt to the loss of the glacier and not,' James Kirkham, a glaciologist at the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative told CNN. Even though the study offers a bleak prognosis for the world's glaciers, its authors are trying 'to give a message of hope,' said Lilian Schuster, a researcher at the University of Innsbruck in Austria, who co-led the study. 'With the study, we want to show that with every tenth of a degree less of global warming, we can preserve glacier ice,' she told CNN. Nearly 200 nations pledged to work together in the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming. Nations committed to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and, if possible, below 1.5 degrees. Each country is responsible for developing its own plans for achieving those goals. But temperatures keep rising — the world is currently on track for up to 2.9 degrees of warming by 2100. And every additional increase of 0.1 degrees between 1.5 and 3 degrees of warming results in an additional 2% of the global glacier mass being lost, the study predicts. 'We're not activists, this is science talking,' said Harry Zekollari, a researcher at Vrije Universiteit Brussel in Belgium and ETH Zürich in Switzerland, who co-led the study. 'Sometimes, the remarks we get is like 'you're alarmist and making people scared.' I say, 'I'm trying to give out what our computer numbers give us.'' This 'landmark' study is 'one of the most important pieces of glacier projection work that's been done this decade,' said Kirkham, who wasn't part of the research team but presented the paper at a United Nations conference on Saturday. Until this paper, previous projection studies ended their predictions at 2100 — the date often used in policy circles to measure the potential effect of the climate crisis, Kirkham said. But glaciers can take years, even centuries, to stabilize after the climate has changed, meaning that the true effect of rising temperatures can be masked for years, too. To investigate this phenomenon, this study used eight pre-existing glacier models and ran simulations stretching over centuries, predicting how each glacier will evolve in that timeframe. Using so many models produced a wide range of results. For example, the finding that glaciers will eventually lose 39% of their mass if current temperatures persist was the median result in a data set ranging from 15% to 55%. But although the range of results is 'quite large,' they're 'all showing the same trend,' said Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, a professor at the University of Iceland, who wasn't involved in the study. 'The message is very clear,' she told CNN. 'All the models are showing the same thing, that with increased warming, the more mass of glaciers we lose.' For Zekollari, the uncertainties in the results show 'there's still a lot to be done when it comes to comparing the different models.' These effects vary by region too, depending on how exposed each glacier is to climate change, the study found. Glaciers in Western Canada and the United States, northeast Canada, Scandinavia and the Russian Arctic are among those particularly at risk.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Nearly 40% of the world's glaciers are already doomed, scientists say
The world's glaciers are in dire health with almost 40% of their total mass already doomed, even if global temperatures stopped rising immediately, a new study has found. Researchers estimate glaciers will eventually lose 39% of their mass relative to 2020, a trend that is already irreversible no matter what comes next and will likely contribute a 113-millimeter increase to global sea level rise. The loss rises to 76% if the world continues to pursue its current climate policies, which will likely fail to keep global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a paper published in the journal Science. The latter scenario could prove disastrous for countries that depend on glacial meltwater for irrigation, power and drinking water; a world in which 39% of the glacier mass is lost compared to 76% is the 'difference between being able to adapt to the loss of the glacier and not,' James Kirkham, a glaciologist at the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative told CNN. Even though the study offers a bleak prognosis for the world's glaciers, its authors are trying 'to give a message of hope,' said Lilian Schuster, a researcher at the University of Innsbruck in Austria, who co-led the study. 'With the study, we want to show that with every tenth of a degree less of global warming, we can preserve glacier ice,' she told CNN. Nearly 200 nations pledged to work together in the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming. Nations committed to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and, if possible, below 1.5 degrees. Each country is responsible for developing its own plans for achieving those goals. But temperatures keep rising — the world is currently on track for up to 2.9 degrees of warming by 2100. And every additional increase of 0.1 degrees between 1.5 and 3 degrees of warming results in an additional 2% of the global glacier mass being lost, the study predicts. 'We're not activists, this is science talking,' said Harry Zekollari, a researcher at Vrije Universiteit Brussel in Belgium and ETH Zürich in Switzerland, who co-led the study. 'Sometimes, the remarks we get is like 'you're alarmist and making people scared.' I say, 'I'm trying to give out what our computer numbers give us.'' This 'landmark' study is 'one of the most important pieces of glacier projection work that's been done this decade,' said Kirkham, who wasn't part of the research team but presented the paper at a United Nations conference on Saturday. Until this paper, previous projection studies ended their predictions at 2100 — the date often used in policy circles to measure the potential effect of the climate crisis, Kirkham said. But glaciers can take years, even centuries, to stabilize after the climate has changed, meaning that the true effect of rising temperatures can be masked for years, too. To investigate this phenomenon, this study used eight pre-existing glacier models and ran simulations stretching over centuries, predicting how each glacier will evolve in that timeframe. Using so many models produced a wide range of results. For example, the finding that glaciers will eventually lose 39% of their mass if current temperatures persist was the median result in a data set ranging from 15% to 55%. But although the range of results is 'quite large,' they're 'all showing the same trend,' said Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, a professor at the University of Iceland, who wasn't involved in the study. 'The message is very clear,' she told CNN. 'All the models are showing the same thing, that with increased warming, the more mass of glaciers we lose.' For Zekollari, the uncertainties in the results show 'there's still a lot to be done when it comes to comparing the different models.' These effects vary by region too, depending on how exposed each glacier is to climate change, the study found. Glaciers in Western Canada and the United States, northeast Canada, Scandinavia and the Russian Arctic are among those particularly at risk.
CNN
2 days ago
- Politics
- CNN
Nearly 40% of the world's glaciers are already doomed, scientists say
The world's glaciers are in dire health with almost 40% of their total mass already doomed, even if global temperatures stopped rising immediately, a new study has found. Researchers estimate glaciers will eventually lose 39% of their mass relative to 2020, a trend that is already irreversible no matter what comes next and will likely contribute a 113-millimeter increase to global sea level rise. The loss rises to 76% if the world continues to pursue its current climate policies, which will likely fail to keep global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a paper published in the journal Science. The latter scenario could prove disastrous for countries that depend on glacial meltwater for irrigation, power and drinking water; a world in which 39% of the glacier mass is lost compared to 76% is the 'difference between being able to adapt to the loss of the glacier and not,' James Kirkham, a glaciologist at the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative told CNN. Even though the study offers a bleak prognosis for the world's glaciers, its authors are trying 'to give a message of hope,' said Lilian Schuster, a researcher at the University of Innsbruck in Austria, who co-led the study. 'With the study, we want to show that with every tenth of a degree less of global warming, we can preserve glacier ice,' she told CNN. Nearly 200 nations pledged to work together in the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming. Nations committed to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and, if possible, below 1.5 degrees. Each country is responsible for developing its own plans for achieving those goals. But temperatures keep rising — the world is currently on track for up to 2.9 degrees of warming by 2100. And every additional increase of 0.1 degrees between 1.5 and 3 degrees of warming results in an additional 2% of the global glacier mass being lost, the study predicts. 'We're not activists, this is science talking,' said Harry Zekollari, a researcher at Vrije Universiteit Brussel in Belgium and ETH Zürich in Switzerland, who co-led the study. 'Sometimes, the remarks we get is like 'you're alarmist and making people scared.' I say, 'I'm trying to give out what our computer numbers give us.'' This 'landmark' study is 'one of the most important pieces of glacier projection work that's been done this decade,' said Kirkham, who wasn't part of the research team but presented the paper at a United Nations conference on Saturday. Until this paper, previous projection studies ended their predictions at 2100 — the date often used in policy circles to measure the potential effect of the climate crisis, Kirkham said. But glaciers can take years, even centuries, to stabilize after the climate has changed, meaning that the true effect of rising temperatures can be masked for years, too. To investigate this phenomenon, this study used eight pre-existing glacier models and ran simulations stretching over centuries, predicting how each glacier will evolve in that timeframe. Using so many models produced a wide range of results. For example, the finding that glaciers will eventually lose 39% of their mass if current temperatures persist was the median result in a data set ranging from 15% to 55%. But although the range of results is 'quite large,' they're 'all showing the same trend,' said Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, a professor at the University of Iceland, who wasn't involved in the study. 'The message is very clear,' she told CNN. 'All the models are showing the same thing, that with increased warming, the more mass of glaciers we lose.' For Zekollari, the uncertainties in the results show 'there's still a lot to be done when it comes to comparing the different models.' These effects vary by region too, depending on how exposed each glacier is to climate change, the study found. Glaciers in Western Canada and the United States, northeast Canada, Scandinavia and the Russian Arctic are among those particularly at risk.
