Latest news with #PotomacRiverCapital
CNA
29-05-2025
- Business
- CNA
Markets shrug off US appeals court's decision to reinstate Trump tariffs
NEW YORK :Wall Street closed higher on Thursday, largely shrugging off a decision by a federal appeals court late Thursday reinstating President Donald Trump's tariffs. This came a day after a trade court blocked most of the U.S. president's tariffs going into effect. The S&P 500 ended up 0.4 per cent higher on the day after the appeals court headline. The dollar, on the other hand, stayed lower against its safe-haven peers such as the yen and Swiss franc as investors braced for more trade uncertainty and volatility. It's "a secondary thing even, though it's capturing the headlines right now. Investors are looking forward. Trump has already rolled back most of these tariffs anyway, so these court rulings are just headlines. Trump probably prepared an appeal before the ruling even came out. As far as I'm concerned, as long as the market doesn't tank on the news, it's just a secondary byproduct." MARK SPINDEL, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, POTOMAC RIVER CAPITAL LLC, WASHINGTON "I think markets are just going to continue to be caught in this pinball machine of court decisions, executive orders and judicial reviews. This is what happens when you don't follow a more sticky legislative process when developing policy. The result of using executive orders is that you're at the mercy of a court that is ruling on, circumscribing, or endorsing those orders. Markets are caught in the middle of all this, and the result is chaos and uncertainty." TIM GHRISKEY, SENIOR PORTFOLIO STRATEGIST, INGALLS & SNYDER, NEW YORK, NEW YORK "The market has become numb to the tariff issue because the changes occur from multiple parties on a daily basis. Last night the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled the Trump doesn't have authority to implement reciprocal tariffs." "That ruling was appealed and the appeal was successful. Now we're back with Trump having authority. Every day there's new news. The time frames are short and there are a lot of countries currently in trade and tariff negotiations. Markets are waiting for an ultimate resolution, which will likely be somewhat favorable to the U.S. overall but they may not be successful everywhere." "Traders will react to news like this as quickly as they can hoping to gain a little advantage. But fortunes aren't made in the stock market by rapidly trading. They're made by investing in companies ... a daily move is just a drop in the bucket." "As we've seen, courts are ruling in opposite ways so its very, very hard to gain any advantage as a trader. And you have a President who makes totally opposite statements on successive days, either huge tariffs or the removal of tariffs." HELEN GIVEN, DIRECTOR OF TRADING, MONEX USA, WASHINGTON "FX markets have become increasingly headline-weary, and the developments over the last 24 hours are no exception. Traders have adopted an 'I'll believe it when I see it' approach to any announcements regarding tariffs, hence the very muted reaction from the U.S. dollar to the headline that Trump's tariffs are, for now, back on the table." "Importantly, the majority of the levies in question have already been paused and will continue to stay on hold until the early July end of Trump's 90-day pause, so traders are giving this court action until then to reach a conclusion and any reaction to further headlines is likely to continue to be smaller than some of the volatility we've seen since April 2nd, albeit in choppy trading."
Yahoo
03-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US investors caught off-guard by depth of tariffs are braced for more pain
By Suzanne McGee (Reuters) - Investors had been prepared for a shock heading in to U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of sweeping new tariffs on Wednesday, but many said that what played out was the worst-case-scenario for markets. Their message: Buckle up and brace yourself. In the run-up to what Trump had billed as "Liberation Day," investors had sought to remain optimistic that clarity about the administration's tariff policies would help the volatile U.S. stock market stabilize. But following Trump's unveiling of what some said were larger-than-anticipated tariffs - and in the midst of the market selloff that followed - many of the same individuals said their main takeaway was a sense of heightened risk and plenty of unanswered questions. "This is bigger than I expected; bigger than anyone really expected," said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer of Potomac River Capital. "And the market is reacting accordingly." Global markets tumbled on Thursday, with the dollar and U.S. stocks among the hardest hit on fears that a broadening trade war would push an already fragile world economy into recession. Reuters talked to a range of investors over the last week, before and after the announcement. Here are some of their views: MARK MALEK, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, SIEBERT FINANCIAL: Before the tariffs announcement: 'There's more potential downside than upside right now.' After the tariffs announcement: "Brace yourself, because here comes the downside. This is a lot more than the market was expecting, if you look at the size of the tariffs. This is going to have a material impact on corporate earnings. I can't imagine any company isn't recalibrating earnings expectations for the full year." MICHAEL ARONE, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS: Before: 'There is potential for more volatility on April 2 and post that deadline. I am still skeptical we will get clarity.' After: "Clearly, markets are still unhappy with the current trade policy. And everyone is still on hold - businesses, consumers, the Fed - to see how things play out. I think anything that offers a hedge against inflation risk should do better, such as gold and hard assets." ANGELO KOURKAFAS, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, EDWARD JONES Before: April 2 will probably not 'completely really clear out all the uncertainties that potentially still remain.' After: "The takeaway is that the tariffs announced are closer to the more aggressive side of the spectrum. The uncertainty will remain. How will other countries respond? Some uncertainty will linger in the weeks to come as this plays out. It just is reinforcing the benefits of a diversified portfolio." MARK SPINDEL, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, POTOMAC RIVER CAPITAL: Before: "I think the market is really holding its breath and ... trying to convince itself, maybe incorrectly, that we've seen the lows." After: "The market's initial reaction just underscores the fact that the tariffs are huge. If we thought this was the end of having to think about tariffs, we were wrong. We don't know what went into Trump's spreadsheet calculations of these rates. But the bottom line is that this is inflationary, and the odds of a recession have gone up." JASON BRITTON, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, REFLECTION ASSET MANAGEMENT: Before: "Whatever comes next may lack detail and specificity and that will drive the market crazy. But there's a chance we'll end up with a sigh of relief in spite of more volatility." After: "If you really parse the information, I think people will digest this and see it as a mixed bag, probably not as bad as it has been portrayed. If the big tech companies sitting on enormous amounts of cash are going to get pinched, I'm a buyer on weakness. It's just the market over-reacting and I'm happy." ROBERT PAVLIK, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, DAKOTA WEALTH: Before: 'I think they're going to start shifting gears and move from tariffs … There will be more emphasis on the tax talk.' After: "Taxes may be the next thing he (Trump) thinks about. But tariffs unfortunately don't seem to be going away soon as an issue. What will other countries do in retaliation? How will this affect U.S. corporations and U.S. consumers? It's going to be difficult for investors going forward; I expect the (volatility index) to starting moving even higher, possibly above 30."
Reuters
03-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
US investors caught off-guard by depth of tariffs are braced for more pain
April 3 (Reuters) - Investors had been prepared for a shock heading in to U.S. President Donald Trump 's announcement of sweeping new tariffs on Wednesday, but many said that what played out was the worst-case-scenario for markets. Their message: Buckle up and brace yourself. In the run-up to what Trump had billed as "Liberation Day," investors had sought to remain optimistic that clarity about the administration's tariff policies would help the volatile U.S. stock market stabilize. But following Trump's unveiling of what some said were larger-than-anticipated tariffs - and in the midst of the market selloff that followed - many of the same individuals said their main takeaway was a sense of heightened risk and plenty of unanswered questions. "This is bigger than I expected; bigger than anyone really expected," said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer of Potomac River Capital. "And the market is reacting accordingly." Global markets tumbled on Thursday, with the dollar and U.S. stocks among the hardest hit on fears that a broadening trade war would push an already fragile world economy into recession. Reuters talked to a range of investors over the last week, before and after the announcement. Here are some of their views: MARK MALEK, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, SIEBERT FINANCIAL: Before the tariffs announcement: 'There's more potential downside than upside right now.' After the tariffs announcement: "Brace yourself, because here comes the downside. This is a lot more than the market was expecting, if you look at the size of the tariffs. This is going to have a material impact on corporate earnings. I can't imagine any company isn't recalibrating earnings expectations for the full year." MICHAEL ARONE, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS: Before: 'There is potential for more volatility on April 2 and post that deadline. I am still skeptical we will get clarity.' After: "Clearly, markets are still unhappy with the current trade policy. And everyone is still on hold - businesses, consumers, the Fed - to see how things play out. I think anything that offers a hedge against inflation risk should do better, such as gold and hard assets." ANGELO KOURKAFAS, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, EDWARD JONES Before: April 2 will probably not 'completely really clear out all the uncertainties that potentially still remain.' After: "The takeaway is that the tariffs announced are closer to the more aggressive side of the spectrum. The uncertainty will remain. How will other countries respond? Some uncertainty will linger in the weeks to come as this plays out. It just is reinforcing the benefits of a diversified portfolio." MARK SPINDEL, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, POTOMAC RIVER CAPITAL: Before: "I think the market is really holding its breath and ... trying to convince itself, maybe incorrectly, that we've seen the lows." After: "The market's initial reaction just underscores the fact that the tariffs are huge. If we thought this was the end of having to think about tariffs, we were wrong. We don't know what went into Trump's spreadsheet calculations of these rates. But the bottom line is that this is inflationary, and the odds of a recession have gone up." JASON BRITTON, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, REFLECTION ASSET MANAGEMENT: Before: "Whatever comes next may lack detail and specificity and that will drive the market crazy. But there's a chance we'll end up with a sigh of relief in spite of more volatility." After: "If you really parse the information, I think people will digest this and see it as a mixed bag, probably not as bad as it has been portrayed. If the big tech companies sitting on enormous amounts of cash are going to get pinched, I'm a buyer on weakness. It's just the market over-reacting and I'm happy." ROBERT PAVLIK, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, DAKOTA WEALTH: Before: 'I think they're going to start shifting gears and move from tariffs … There will be more emphasis on the tax talk.' After: "Taxes may be the next thing he (Trump) thinks about. But tariffs unfortunately don't seem to be going away soon as an issue. What will other countries do in retaliation? How will this affect U.S. corporations and U.S. consumers? It's going to be difficult for investors going forward; I expect the (volatility index) to starting moving even higher, possibly above 30."
