Fears over unlikely Egypt-Iran alliance in changing political landscape

The National

a day ago

Quietly and rapidly, Egypt and Iran are forging an alliance with the potential to redefine the Middle East's geopolitical map.
The surprise friendship is placing the two powerhouses in a position to stymie Israel's pursuit of domination in an increasingly violent region, sources have told The National.
It's an unlikely partnership on many levels. Until recently, Egypt had routinely condemned what it viewed as Iran's meddling in the affairs of its Arab neighbours, as well as its support for proxies such as Lebanon's Hezbollah, Shiite militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen, which Cairo sees as dangerous.
The two countries have emerged from decades of fraught relations and, at times, outright enmity that date back to the 1979 Islamic revolution and the refuge Cairo afforded the Shah of Iran when he fled.
The alliance has transcended the religious persuasion of the two nations, with Iran being the world's largest Shiite nation, and a history of evangelistic activity in the region. In contrast, Egypt is predominantly Sunni and home to the 1,000-year-old Al Azhar Mosque, the world's foremost seat of Islamic learning.
The association is also fraught with peril. Egypt is a close ally of the US, Iran's nemesis, receiving billions of dollars in economic and military aid from Washington over the past 50 years that it can ill afford to lose. It also has a US-sponsored 1979 peace treaty with Israel in place, which regards the clergy-led regime in Tehran as an existential threat.
The dangers are more foreboding considering that the Cairo-Tehran alliance comes at a time when Egypt's relations with Israel are at their lowest ebb in decades over the Gaza war, with officials in both countries occasionally adopting sabre-rattling rhetoric. Cairo's relations with Washington have also been tense in recent months, again over Gaza.
The regional sources said a significant component of the Cairo-Tehran alliance is Egypt's wish to stop what it sees as Israel's bid to dominate the region through its military might and the virtually unconditional support it receives from the US.
Diplomacy to bridge gap
Egypt's opposition to Israel's perceived goal is a matter of public record in a country that has, in recent days, taken to calling its war in Gaza genocidal.
'It's not acceptable to allow any single party to dominate the region or to engineer what is called the restructuring of the region,' said Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty.
'We are quite capable of imposing our view within the regional and Arab frameworks and will not allow any single party to impose its will on the area,' he said in a thinly veiled reference to Israel.
It is towards this end that Egypt had sought to use diplomacy to bridge the gap between Iran and the US during weeks of fruitless negotiations that preceded the Israel-Iran war in June.
During those Oman-mediated negotiations, Mr Abdelatty frequently spoke on the telephone to his Iranian and Omani counterparts, as well as the US chief negotiator, Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.
Official Egyptian statements at the time spoke of Egypt's efforts to defuse the tension and spare the region a destructive conflict.
Separately, Egypt has been engaged in intense talks with the Iranians and Rafael Grossi, head of the IAEA – the UN's nuclear oversight agency – since the end of the 12-day war with Israel, the sources said.
Those contacts, they said, were designed to promote a peaceful settlement of the dispute over Iran's nuclear programme and to find a mechanism to rid the Middle East of nuclear weapons.
Mr Abdelatty has also frequently cited Israel's refusal to sign the nuclear non-proliferation agreement as a major contribution to tension in the region, while emphasising the freedom of every nation in the area to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.
Newly minted alliance
Mr Abdelatty has held talks with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi, in person or by phone, at least a dozen times this summer, an unusually large number over a relatively short time given the rapprochement between the two nations is so recent.
'Egypt wants Iran to stay strong and united as a deterrent to Israel's expansionist designs,' said one of the sources. 'It does not want it to be subjected again to strikes by Israel and the US that could cause the country to come unhinged.'
During a visit to Egypt in June, Mr Araghchi visited Cairo's medieval district and joined three former Egyptian foreign ministers for dinner at a restaurant in the Khan El Khalili bazaar, activities rarely allowed by Egyptian authorities and tolerated only when hosting a special guest.
'We constantly consult with Egypt and we have a wish for these consultations to continue,' Mr Araghchi said. 'Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Egypt are close and are founded on mutual respect.'
Egypt's objectives in this newly minted alliance reach beyond the nuclear file, said the sources.
The most populous Arab nation with 107 million people, Egypt is looking to the day when a sanctions-free Iran would potentially be a reliable source of oil and gas to meet the needs of its rapidly growing population, the sources added.
Egypt is also eyeing the large Iranian market for at least two million pilgrims annually to visit religious sites housing the tombs of members of the Prophet Mohammed's family, along with those of revered saints, they said.
Further afield, Egypt is also looking to Iran to continue to counter Israel's growing influence in Africa, parts of which are seen by Cairo as an extension of its national security sphere, they added.
Militarily, Egypt stands to benefit from Iran's drone technology, a field in which Iran has excelled to a degree that has reportedly allowed it to supply the weapons to Russia for use in its war against Ukraine, according to the sources.
But despite the potential benefits Egypt hopes to gain from its close relations with Iran, it has to tread carefully.
One concern is that Egypt must ensure relations with Iran bring about improved ties between Tehran and its Arab neighbours in the Gulf.
Another is that Cairo should never be seen to be involved in any attempt by Iran to develop nuclear weapons – which Tehran denies it intends to – or to develop an atomic energy programme outside the oversight of the IAEA.