Swiggy shares jump over 20% in a month: Is a bigger rally brewing?
Synopsis Swiggy shares have jumped over 20% in the past month, fueled by technical strength, positive brokerage views, and macro tailwinds like festive demand and the upcoming 8th Pay Commission. Analysts see room for further gains, especially with improving margins and growth in its quick commerce vertical. Swiggy shares have surged over 20% in the past month, reflecting renewed investor optimism after a prolonged consolidation phase. From its May 2025 lows, the stock has steadily recovered, riding on improved technicals, a positive outlook from top brokerages, and broader tailwinds such as the upcoming festive season and the likely rollout of the 8th Pay Commission.
ADVERTISEMENT The recovery in Swiggy's stock price has been supported by improving technical strength. Amit Trivedi, Vice President, Technical Analyst at YES Securities, believes the trend remains "moderately positive."
'Swiggy, which debuted in the latter part of 2024, experienced a multi-month price correction between Dec'24 and May'25. However, since June 2025, the stock has demonstrated gradual recovery, managing to clear resistance levels in the 360–380 zone,' said Trivedi.
He noted that the formation of multiple bullish candles indicates strong support at Rs 350, while sustained stability above Rs 380 could unlock upside potential toward the Rs 430 zone.Mandar Bhojane, Equity Research Analyst at Choice Broking, echoed this view, recommending a buy-on-dips strategy. 'Swiggy has recently given a breakout from a parallel range on the daily chart. After a successful breakout and retest, the stock made a new high, indicating strong bullish sentiment,' he said.
ADVERTISEMENT With RSI at 72.24 and a positive crossover in the Stochastic RSI, Bhojane expects the rally to continue, targeting Rs 440–460. He advises existing holders to trail stop-losses at Rs 365 and look for buying opportunities near Rs 375.
Brokerages IIFL Capital and BNP Paribas have initiated coverage on Swiggy with bullish views, citing strong fundamentals and underappreciated potential in the quick commerce (QC) space.
ADVERTISEMENT IIFL Capital has recently assigned a 'buy' rating with a target price of Rs 535, highlighting Swiggy's improving execution and strong positioning in food delivery. While the platform saw its food delivery market share dip from 46.5% in FY22 to 42.4% in Q1FY25, IIFL attributes this to short-term execution issues.'We expect Swiggy's food delivery vertical to grow at 18% CAGR over FY25–28, with Adjusted EBITDA margins expanding to 20% by FY28,' IIFL said. Contribution margins have already improved from 7.1% to 7.8% of gross order value (GOV) between FY25 and Q4FY25, aided by better monetisation, ad revenue, and cost optimisation.
ADVERTISEMENT Quick commerce remains a key growth driver. IIFL believes that Swiggy's 10-minute delivery service, Bolt, now accounting for 12% of orders, along with strong execution, gives it an edge in a duopoly market. Notably, IIFL sees Swiggy's non-food business as significantly undervalued compared to rivals like Blinkit.BNP Paribas, too, has given an 'Outperform' rating to Swiggy, expecting it to outpace competitor Eternal in both sales and EBITDA growth by FY28. It points to a turnaround in execution, faster deliveries, and better monetisation strategies, particularly in quick commerce via Instamart, which it believes is not fully priced into current valuations.
ADVERTISEMENT 'Despite near-term losses, Swiggy's QC play is part of a land-grab strategy. With profitability triggers such as better volumes and brand partnerships, a re-rating is possible,' BNP noted.Beyond internal improvements, two broader tailwinds could further support Swiggy's growth trajectory in the coming quarters.Firstly, the upcoming festive season, which typically sees a surge in online food and grocery orders, is expected to boost volumes across both food delivery and QC platforms. Analysts anticipate increased consumer spending and a rise in average order values as disposable incomes rise during this period.Secondly, the expected implementation of the 8th Pay Commission—which is likely to benefit millions of government employees and pensioners—may lead to a broader consumption boost. Increased discretionary spending could flow into categories like online food ordering and quick commerce, especially in urban centres where Swiggy has a strong presence.While Swiggy's recent price action and analyst coverage suggest growing investor confidence, the road ahead will depend on its ability to execute consistently in both food delivery and quick commerce.Strong festive demand, potential pay commission-led consumption, and margin improvement offer tailwinds. However, competition, customer retention, and sustained profitability remain critical areas to watch.
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With sentiment improving and brokerages projecting robust earnings and market share gains, investors may continue to ride the Swiggy wave—but with an eye on delivery.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
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