How decline of PM Ishiba's LDP reflects ‘Trump effect' on Japan

First Post

24-07-2025

The Trump effect—embodied in both American policy and its global ideological footprint—has found fertile ground in Japan's political soil read more
The ruling coalition in Japan, comprising the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner, Komeito, suffered a significant political setback in the recent Upper House elections, reducing them to a minority status. This follows their earlier disappointing performance in the October 2024 Lower House elections, which had already cost them a majority. As it stands, the coalition now finds itself in the minority in both chambers of the National Diet, a rare and politically precarious position that may foreshadow deeper shifts in Japan's political landscape.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Of the 125 Upper House seats contested, 124 were regular seats, while one was a by-election. The electoral system gives voters two votes: one for a candidate in their local constituency and another for a political party through proportional representation. Fifty of the seats were filled via the latter method, with the remaining 75 chosen by direct constituency vote.
Prior to the election, the LDP-Komeito coalition held 75 uncontested seats. Their target was modest: secure at least 50 seats out of the 125 up for grabs, enough to maintain a slim majority. However, the results fell short. The coalition won only 47 seats, three fewer than needed for a majority. The LDP, under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, lost 13 seats, while Komeito dropped six. Meanwhile, the opposition bloc made substantial gains, securing a combined total of 78 seats.
Rising Discontent and Economic Anxiety
Much of the disillusionment with the ruling coalition centres around economic frustrations. Inflation, long dormant in Japan, has resurfaced, now hovering above 3 per cent. The cost of basic necessities such as rice has doubled in the past year, and a consumption tax of 10 per cent continues to weigh heavily on consumers. Wages, by contrast, have remained stagnant, leaving many Japanese citizens struggling to maintain their standard of living.
This economic squeeze has particularly affected young voters and families, prompting questions about the government's ability to manage the economy. Amid rising living costs and growing inequality, the LDP's campaign promises appeared out of touch with the daily realities of many voters.
The economic unease also intersected with cultural and social anxieties, particularly regarding Japan's increasing reliance on foreign labour. The number of foreign workers has surged to around 3.8 million, roughly 3 per cent of the population, driven largely by the country's ageing demographics and labour shortages. While some view this influx as a necessary adaptation, others see it as a threat to national identity and social cohesion.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Rise of Sanseito and Populist Nationalism
In this climate of dissatisfaction and uncertainty, smaller and newer political parties gained ground. One of the most striking developments in the election was the rise of the right-wing populist party Sanseito. Founded only a few years ago, Sanseito increased its representation from a single seat to 15 in the Upper House, marking a major breakthrough for Japan's radical right.
Sanseito's success was built on a staunchly nationalist and anti-globalist platform. Its leader, Sohei Kamiya, frequently invoked the rhetoric and political strategies of US President Donald Trump. He called for a halt to immigration, restrictions on foreign workers, and an economic policy that would put 'Japan First'. His campaign framed foreign labour not as a solution to economic issues but as a scapegoat for them, blaming multinational corporations and globalist elites for Japan's domestic struggles.
In addition to opposing immigration, Kamiya has proposed a fully independent Japanese defence force, free from US military dependency, and called for resisting American trade demands, especially in sensitive sectors like rice, beef, and automobiles. Ironically, while he borrows heavily from Trump's playbook, Kamiya positions himself as a defender of Japanese sovereignty against Trump policies that have been seen as exploitative or unfair toward Japan.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
The appeal of Sanseito's messaging, particularly among younger voters, reflects growing frustration with the LDP's perceived ineffectiveness and over-accommodation of foreign pressures. Disenchanted by stagnant wages, mounting taxes, and a sense that their voices are not heard, many young people turned away from the political mainstream and toward populist alternatives.
'Trump Effect'
A key question arising from the election results is whether the so-called 'Trump effect' played a role in undermining Prime Minister Ishiba's leadership. While Ishiba has not openly opposed US influence, he has had to walk a diplomatic tightrope in recent months. His administration has faced increasing pressure from the Trump administration to increase Japan's defence spending beyond 3.5 per cent of GDP, a highly sensitive topic for many Japanese voters.
Although Japan has already boosted its military budget, purchased American defence equipment, and increased its contributions to US bases on Japanese soil, the Trump administration has continued to impose punitive trade tariffs. Japan, alongside South Korea, is subject to a 25 per cent tariff bracket under Trump's trade regime, based on claims that Japan has not sufficiently opened its domestic markets, particularly in agriculture and automobiles.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
In a notable diplomatic rebuke, Japan recently cancelled a scheduled '2+2' security dialogue with the US. While Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi did attend a Quad summit in Washington, the Ishiba administration had hoped that a strong showing in the Upper House elections would enhance its leverage in ongoing trade negotiations with both the US and EU. That hope, however, now appears dashed. Post elections, Ishiba said regarding the tariff negotiations with the US, he wanted to talk in person with President Donald Trump as soon as possible to realise an agreement that is mutually beneficial.
A Crisis of Confidence
Public confidence in Ishiba's ability to manage relations with the US and restore Japan's economic vitality has deteriorated. A recent national poll revealed that 70 per cent of Japanese citizens lack faith in Tokyo's ability to secure favourable outcomes in its negotiations with Washington. Only 22 per cent remain optimistic.
This broader sense of unease has translated into declining approval ratings for the prime minister. Ishiba's approval dropped by 6.2 percentage points in July to just 20.8 per cent, the lowest since he assumed office in October. Meanwhile, his disapproval rating climbed to 55 per cent, the highest of his tenure.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Political analysts argue that the rise of Sanseito, and other, more moderately nationalist parties is part of a larger shift in Japanese politics. Since the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe three years ago, Japan's nationalist right has lacked a unifying figure. Abe had long acted as a buffer between Japan's pragmatic conservatism and its more radical nationalist fringes. In his absence, political space has opened for new actors to challenge the traditional dominance of the LDP.
These parties, while varying in extremity, often focus on a similar set of grievances: inflation, declining real incomes, tax burdens on the young to support an ageing population, and an increasingly lopsided alliance with the United States. Sanseito, in particular, has captured this mood of discontent and used it to craft a narrative that resonates with disillusioned voters.
The party's momentum appears to be growing. Last month, it gained an additional seat when a member of another opposition party defected. It had also won three Lower House seats in a by-election in Tokyo last year, further solidifying its presence on the national stage.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Looking Ahead
While the ruling coalition lost its majority, the LDP remains the largest political force with a total of 101 seats. 'We must understand the responsibility as the leading party and the one we have to fulfil for the nation,' Ishiba said. He also signalled his intention to keep his position after the election, saying, 'I am keenly aware of [my] responsibilities.'
Japan's political future is now uncertain. The ruling coalition's dual minority status will complicate legislative efforts and make it harder to implement any coherent agenda. Ishiba's government will likely face increasing internal dissent, coalition instability, and challenges from both the left and right.
Whether this leads to early elections, leadership change, or further fragmentation of Japan's political landscape remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: the 'Trump effect'—embodied in both American policy and its global ideological footprint—has found fertile ground in Japan's political soil.
As Japan moves forward, the electorate's shift toward populism, nationalism, and economic protectionism may redefine the country's political trajectory—and its place in the world.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
The author is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.