Hurricane Season Update: Storm Alvin Could Form Wednesday
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
The first storm of the 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season could form as early as Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), which reports that a low-pressure system south of Mexico is likely to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm, Alvin.
Why It Matters
The 2024 hurricane season resulted in substantial losses, with storms impacting the Gulf and Caribbean regions.
Major storms like Hurricane Beryl struck the Caribbean and Mexico, and later storms, including Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton, caused fatalities and economic losses estimated at $78.7 billion and $34.3 billion, respectively, according to the BBC, citing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data.
What To Know
"Environmental conditions remain favorable for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight as the low moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 [miles per hour]," the NHC said in a Wednesday morning update.
The tropical rainstorm is expected to continue developing today, potentially reaching tropical depression or tropical storm status as it moves northwest. As it tracks farther over the Pacific later this week, it may intensify into a hurricane, forecasters at AccuWeather said.
A forecast map from AccuWeather shows the system's expected path.
A forecast map from AccuWeather shows the system's expected path.
AccuWeather
However, by the weekend, the system is likely to weaken as it approaches Mexico, encountering cooler waters and stronger wind shear. Despite this, it could still deliver locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along parts of Mexico's west-central coast from late week into the weekend, according to AccuWeather.
A tropical depression is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 38 mph or less, according to the NHC. In contrast, a tropical storm features sustained winds ranging from 39 to 73 mph.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15. It runs through November 30.
What People Are Saying
Fox Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin said: "That's usually how things work for the [Eastern Pacific]. You know, our water temperatures cool significantly off of Baja. This will generally be indirect impacts because, although this is tracking towards Baja and also the Pacific coast of Mexico, it will no longer be a tropical system at that point because the water temperature is significantly cooler."
AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told Newsweek: "Both the Atlantic and East Pacific name lists rotate every 6 years. Storms with major land impacts are 'retired.' A meeting every year of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) determines which names from the previous year should be retired. Storm list names are maintained and updated by the WMO."
What Happens Next
AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting 14 to 18 tropical storms and seven to 10 hurricanes in the eastern Pacific for 2025. In comparison, the historical averages are 15 tropical storms and four hurricanes.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
25 years since Hurricane Katrina, its transformative impact is fresh as yesterday
Trees down. Blocked roads. Damaged homes. Boil-water alerts. No electricity for days. Spotty phone service. Stores closed. Scarce food. Rations on gasoline. Fights – some deadly – as tensions boil from people angling for necessities in snaking lines during searing heat. Such scenarios are common in the aftermath of catastrophic storms: In this case, Hurricane Katrina's ravage along the Gulf Coast – particularly southeast Florida, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. But the scenarios described above happened in Jackson, Mississippi, some 250 miles from where the hurricane made a second landfall on Aug. 29, 2005, in Buras, Louisiana. The Magnolia State's capital city had prepared to take in the thousands of fleeing residents who lived in the areas projected to be hit hardest. What Jackson was not prepared for was a storm that still would be a strong Category 1 as it unleashed its fury northward. It had short-term shelters for evacuees, but not a plan B for the prolonged consequences on its residents. I was among the editing team for the Jackson-based Clarion-Ledger (part of the USA TODAY Network). We, along with the rest of the content staff, had spent days compiling resource guides for evacuees, interviewing those who had taken early shelter and putting together a plan for post-coverage. More: A local reporter's experience covering Western North Carolina in the wake of Helene What we didn't know is we'd end up among those trying to figure out how to get back home from the office via debris-filled streets, how we'd care for our families and still work, how we'd account for loved ones farther south when communication was lost. On top of that, cellphones were not ubiquitous possessions. Therefore, editors who had one gave them up to staffers who were in the field. The first weekend I got mine back, my 2-year-old son dropped it in a bucket of water on the deck. And there was no way to get another one for some time. A month passed before I learned my older sister in hard-hit Gulfport survived. And though I thought I'd well-handled 11 days of what felt like survival in the Outback, I finally broke down in tears when my toddlers got their first taste of a hot breakfast – just oatmeal, mind you – gobbling it as if they had not had a meal in weeks. Weathering and working through Katrina sharpened me as a parent and a professional. Yet this was nothing compared with what those who fled their homes faced, not to mention those who'd stayed. Evacuees from greater New Orleans, along with the rest of the world, learned of the compounded devastation of levees failing the day after landfall. Catastrophic flooding and a surging death toll resulted. A return home anytime soon was not possible. Evacuees were dispersed to 45 states and the District of Columbia, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Some 65% to 73% did make their way back. For the remaining, returning permanently was not feasible. Hurricane Katrina still holds the distinction as the costliest hurricane in U.S history and the third deadliest. The USA TODAY Network is chronicling its lingering impact along the Gulf Coast and throughout the U.S., and the resilience of the people involved. If you or anyone you know in Delaware, South Jersey or the Philly burbs is part of the Katrina diaspora, please contact us at and share your story. Meanwhile, as I've previously mentioned, Delaware Online/The News Journal is stepping up our efforts meet you out in the actual community. We are setting up mobile newsrooms up and down Delaware where you can meet some of the staffers, get insights on how the newsroom operates, pitch story ideas and learn about community resources. You may also have the opportunity to get a free, no-strings-attached subscription. But, you have to come see us. Stay tuned for where we'll post up next. And send ideas on where you think would be great places for us to do a pop-up. More from this editor: Take it from Grandpa: Community coverage can be a bridge across divides Jamesetta Miller Walker is the editor for emerging audiences and inclusion storytelling. Reach her at jmwalker1@ This article originally appeared on Delaware News Journal: 25 years since Katrina, its transformative impact is fresh as yesterday
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
National Hurricane Center eyeing tropical wave as season nears, here's where
The official start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is just two days away and so far, the tropics are quiet. As of Friday, May 30, the National Hurricane Center is tracking one tropical wave moving into the Caribbean, but no tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next seven days. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Alvin, the first tropical storm in the Northern Hemisphere in the 2025 hurricane season, is sending swells to the coasts of west-central and southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula, but it expected to unravel quickly, the NHC said. 1st tropical storm of season: Tropical Storm Alvin forms in Pacific: See projected path, spaghetti models The 2025 Pacific hurricane season began on May 15, two weeks earlier than the Atlantic season, which officially begins Sunday, June 1. ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its prediction for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, May 22, predicting an above-average season, with 13 to 19 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes. The first named storm of the 2025 Atlantic season will be Andrea. Here's the National Hurricane Center's daily outlook as of 6 a.m. on Friday, May 29. ➤ Track all active storms The National Hurricane Center said there are no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin and no tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next seven days. Forecasters are tracking one tropical wave: The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W south of 15N, southeast of Puerto Rico, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Limited convection is noted with this wave. The Atlantic basin consists of the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America. NOAA changed its naming convention for the Gulf of Mexico after the U.S. Geological Survey changed the name on U.S. maps per President Donald Trump's order. Forecasters urge all residents to keep an eye on the tropics and to always be prepared. ➤ Creating hurricane supplies kit important, but what if money is tight? Tips, resources to help NOAA is predicting there is a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance for a below-normal season. ➤ NOAA predicting above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. What can Florida expect? Forecasters predict: Named storms: 13-19 Hurricanes: 6-10 Major hurricanes: 3-5 A major hurricane is a Category 3 storm or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Tallahassee meteorologist Ryan Truchelut, who forecasts under WeatherTiger, is predicting landfall risks as near to slightly above normal this year due to closer-to-average sea temperatures in 2025. Truchelut looks more at impact than the Atlantic basin as a whole. So far, he's predicting 65% odds of an above normal season: Tropical storms: 16-20 Hurricanes: 7-9 Major hurricanes: 3-4 Tracking the storms: New study finds this company most accurate for hurricane predictions. Is it right? A tropical wave is a system of low pressure that moves westward across the tropics. Waves can lead to the formation of tropical cyclones, under the right conditions, according to the National Weather Service. The majority of tropical cyclones develop out of tropical waves, which also are called easterly waves, according to NOAA. AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said 85% of all tropical storms can trace their origins to tropical waves. "If a tropical wave survives its journey westward, it will find increasingly warm waters and moist air as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, a group of islands in the Caribbean Sea," AccuWeather said. The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30. Since 2003, there have been 15 tropical cyclones that have formed before June 1. Eleven of those storms formed in May. There have even been occasions when a tropical cyclone has formed in January. Here's a look back at a few of the early storms: Jan. 16-17, 2023: Unnamed subtropical storm. May 22-23, 2021: Tropical Storm Ana. May 16-19, 2020: Tropical Storm Arthur. May 27-28, 2020: Tropical Storm Bertha. May 20-21, 2019: Subtropical Storm Andrea. May 25-31, 2018: Tropical Storm Alberto. April 19-21, 2017: Tropical Storm Arlene. Jan. 12-15, 2016: Hurricane Alex May 27-June 4, 2016: Tropical Storm Bonnie May 8-11, 2015: Tropical Storm Ana. May 19-22, 2012: Tropical Storm Alberto. May 26-30, 2012: Tropical Storm Beryl. May 31-June 1, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur. May 9-11, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea. April 20-24, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana. The first named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Andrea. Since 2003, Andrea has appeared twice in May, including the last year the name appeared in 2019. May 9-11, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea May 20-21, 2019: Subtropical Storm Andrea The World Meteorological Committee maintains six lists of hurricane names in the Atlantic basin and separate lists for the Pacific basin. There are 21 names on each list. The six lists of names are used on a rotating basis, so names from the list used in 2025 will appear again in 2031, unless a name is retired. A nation hit hardest by a devastating storm can request its name be removed because use of the name again would be insensitive. Beryl, Helene and Milton were retired from the list used last year and were replaced with Brianna, Holly and Miguel. Tropical outlooks are issued every day by the National Hurricane Center from May 15 through Nov. 30. The outlooks come out at 8 a.m., 2 p.m., 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. ET. ➤ Where can I find Hurricane Center's tropical outlooks? ➤ Where will Hurricane Center issue advisories? A map highlights "significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next seven days," said Larry Kelly, hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center, in an email. Contained in the outlook are the probabilities an area could develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours and seven days: A low probability of development ranges from 0-30% (designated in yellow) A medium probability of development ranges from 40-60% (designated in orange) A high probability of development ranges from 70-100% (designated in red) "The hatched areas on the graphic represent the potential formation area during the forecast period. It is important to note that it is not a forecast track and just a formation area," Kelly said. ➤ In a rush? 15 things you should know before 2025 hurricane season arrives "The tropical weather outlook provides forecasts on areas of disturbed weather that could develop into tropical cyclones," Kelly said. "It highlights the location, movement, and development potential of these systems over the next two to seven days. "This information is important for early preparation and awareness during hurricane season so you can be prepared for the hazards that systems can bring, including storm surge, flooding, strong winds, tornadoes and hazardous marine and beach conditions." Although many people search Google for an answer to the question "When is Florida hurricane season?" there actually is no such thing. The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said, so storms can form before and after those dates. Tropical storms and hurricanes that develop in the Atlantic basin do impact the U.S., from the Gulf Coast and Florida north into Canada. The Atlantic basin consists of the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America. Predictions released as of May 13 predict an above-normal number of named tropical systems, ranging from: Named storms: 13-21 Hurricanes: 7-10 Major hurricanes: 3-5 ➤ Florida is No. 1. That's not good when it comes to hurricane season predictions. See forecast Named storms: 14 Hurricanes: 7 Major hurricanes: 3 The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA said. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. We will provided tropical weather coverage daily until Nov. 30 to keep you informed and prepared. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: 2025 hurricane season starts Sunday; NHC tracking tropical wave
Axios
an hour ago
- Axios
These names could be remembered for all the wrong reasons
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season starts Sunday, and there's a new list of storm names. Why it matters: A single name on this list could define the season if it's tied to a major disaster. The big picture: The World Meteorological Organization picks the names, which are based on "their familiarity to people" in the region. The lists are reused every six years, with this batch last used in 2019. Dexter is a new addition this year, replacing Dorian, which was retired after the 2019 storm that devastated the Bahamas. Systems are named when they strengthen to at least a tropical storm. The names are: Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy Between the lines: If all the names are used, WMO uses a supplemental list. It previously used the Greek alphabet, but they ended that practice after confusion during the 2020 season. Names are retired if they are associated with a particularly deadly or costly storm. For instance, the names Beryl, Milton and Helene were retired after the 2024 hurricane season. Flashback: Storms weren't named until 1953. Before then, they were tracked by the year and order they occurred that year, according to NOAA. At first, only female names were used. In 1979, male names were added to the mix for storms in the Atlantic basin. What's next: Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 through Nov. 30, but storms can form any time.
