Where are the hurricanes? Top forecast says a busy season is still on the way.
Where are the hurricanes? Top forecast says a busy season is still on the way. Colorado State University's forecast update still warns of above-normal hurricane activity this season
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Hurricane season will be a busy one, experts say
Dr. Michael Brennan, Director of the National Hurricane Center, said he expected a busy hurricane season and urged people to begin to prepare.
The tropics may be relatively quiet for the moment but the latest forecast outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season doesn't expect that to last.
A more active than normal season is still expected, reports the tropical research team at Colorado State University. The forecast is unchanged from its initial April release, which calls for 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
Activity is expected to be about 125% of the average hurricane season from 1991-2020. Activity in 2024 – with its five landfalling hurricanes in the mainland United States – was about 130% of average. The Colorado State team also sees an above-average probability of major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
'So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, and 2021,' said lead author Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in Colorado State's atmospheric science department. His co-authors are CSU professor Michael Bell and research scientist Levi Silvers.
The risk of a major hurricane, with winds of more than 111 mph, making landfall somewhere along the entire U.S. mainland coastline is about 51%, according to the update.
Hurricane season is here: The nation's top forecaster wants you to know these things
Although seasonal outlooks provide clues for emergency responders and risk managers, forecast experts say it's important to remember that even just one hurricane or tropical storm can be disastrous, regardless of what happens the rest of the season.
The Colorado State update included this reminder: "Thorough preparations should be made for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."
What's the immediate storm outlook?
No tropical storm activity is indicated over the next seven days by the National Hurricane Center.
A longer-range outlook through July 1, shows the risk of tropical development elevated only in the waters just to the north of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center.
How do they predict hurricane season outlooks?
Research scientists prepare seasonal outlooks by analyzing conditions in the ocean and atmosphere, including data collected by NOAA. The first was published at Colorado State by the late pioneering researcher William Gray in 1984.
Among the factors expected to influence this season are warmer-than-normal waters in the tropical Atlantic, and neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific, with neither an El Niño or a La Niña in control.
'Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time,' according to the CSU outlook. Warmer sea surface conditions create a more favorable environment for any potential storms to feed off that warm water energy.
Neutral conditions in the Pacific, along the equator west of South America, tend to have less influence on the formation of storms in the Atlantic basin than either end of the spectrum.
An El Niño's warmer-than-normal waters along the equator west of South America can stir up trade wind patterns that tend to prevent storms in the Atlantic from building the kind of high tops they need to sustain hurricanes. A La Niña on the other hand, with its pattern of cooler than normal waters in the Pacific, can contribute to more hurricanes in the Atlantic basin because the prevailing trade winds over the Atlantic are calmer and less disruptive to potential storms.
Although neutral conditions are expected through the fall and winter, chances are almost equal for the formation of a La Niña, according to the Climate.gov website.
Want a head start on hurricane prep? Here's the ultimate check list for preparing your home
Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about climate change, violent weather and other news. Reach her at dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.
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