Virginia emerges as key bellwether ahead of midterms

The Hill

07-07-2025

Virginia's off-year elections are being viewed by both parties as a key bellwether heading into next year's midterms, as well as a potential indicator for how voters view President Trump.
Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) will face off to become the first female governor of the state, while Democrats will seek to maintain and grow their majority in the House of Delegates.
The races could prove to be a litmus test for the first year of Trump's second administration as Republicans prepare to defend their majorities in Congress next year, especially as Virginia has a tendency to oscillate between the two parties in the race for governor.
'The Democrats want to look at this as a bellwether largely because they think they have an advantage here,' said veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball each rate the gubernatorial contest as 'lean Democratic.'
A Roanoke College survey released in May showed Spanberger with a wide 43 percent to 26 percent lead over Earle-Sears, with 28 percent of voters saying they were undecided. However, another May poll released by the business group Virginia FREE showed Spanberger leading by 4 percentage points.
Spanberger also holds a fundraising lead over Earle-Sears. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Spanberger raised $6.5 million while Sears brought in $3.5 million. Spanberger currently has more than $14 million in the bank, while Sears has just less than $3 million.
Spanberger, a former intelligence officer, has a history as a formidable candidate, having unseated former Rep. Dave Brat (R-Va.) in the state's highly competitive 7th Congressional District. The congresswoman went on to win reelection in the district twice. Additionally, Spanberger has touted herself as a moderate Democrat, pointing to her work across the aisle while serving in the House.
While Spanberger has touted a number of kitchen=table issues including affordability, investing in schools and community safety, the former congresswoman often points to federal government job cuts made under Trump's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The cuts have had a unique impact on Virginia given the federal government's close proximity to the state.
'Virginia is home to more than 320,000 federal employees,' Spanberger said in an interview with The Hill. 'I will never miss an opportunity to make sure the president understands that the haphazard DOGE effort has been deeply, deeply detrimental to Virginians, to their families, to our economy, and that the havoc it has wreaked across our commonwealth is so significant.'
'As a former national security professional, I have dire concerns about what the future looks like,' she said, referring to laid-off government employees with 'institutional understanding and historical references.'
Earle-Sears, who is originally from Jamaica, has a background as a Marine Corps veteran and businesswoman. She served in the House of Delegates from 2002 to 2004 and unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.) in the state's 3rd Congressional District in 2004. In 2021, she became Virginia's first female lieutenant governor when she won alongside Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Attorney General Jason Miyares (R).
Earle-Sears has leaned into her work in the Youngkin administration in making her case to the commonwealth's voters, particularly on job creation.
'[Voters] all pretty much say they want what we are doing in Virginia to continue, and my opponent's problem is she was never a part of creating this great economy that we have, bringing all these jobs to Virginia,' Earle-Sears told The Hill in an interview.
In the wake of the DOGE cuts, Youngkin and Earle-Sears have touted the administration's 'Virginia Has Jobs' initiative, which includes 250,000 open jobs in the state; a 'support resource bundle' would also be available to federal workers looking for work.
However, Democrats have attacked Earle-Sears over her response to the impact of DOGE cuts on the state, pointing to remarks she made earlier this year in which she touted the state's jobs initiative and said losing a job is 'not unusual.'
'I have lost a job, and in any room that this has been brought up, I ask the people how many of you have ever lost a job?' Earle-Sears told The Hill last month, referring to remarks from earlier this year. 'I raised my hand along with them. And I got to tell you, we don't want people to of course not have jobs, and that's why we have been so successful in creating over 270,000 of them.'
However, Republicans are still voicing concerns about Earle-Sears's chances in November.
Veteran GOP strategist and senior adviser to Trump's 2024 presidential campaign Chris LaCivita called her staff 'ameteurs' in a post on the social platform X in May, while one Virginia Republican strategist called this year's cycle 'a hard hill to climb' for Republicans.
'The money disadvantage is massive, and that's a problem,' the Virginia GOP strategist said. 'That's the challenge beyond structure, the resource piece and running really good campaigns.'
The strategist noted that in addition to touting her work in Youngkin's administration, Earle-Sears could draw on issues that have played well for Republicans nationally.
'There are encouraging signs,' the strategist said. 'Obviously the president's approval rating, stability around the world, stability on trade policy. There are the conditions for the national environment to be solid, and yet still it is a challenging state to compete in simply because of the makeup of the state and historically, just with the party in power, it makes it difficult to [hold on to the governorship].'
During Trump's first administration in 2017, Democrats saw victories in the gubernatorial, lieutenant gubernatorial and state attorney general races. Democrats did not win a majority in the House of Delegates that year, but they narrowed the GOP majority to a one-seat advantage.
Two years later, in 2019, Virginia Democrats gained control of the House of Delegates and the state Senate, giving the party control of both legislative chambers and the governor's mansion for the first time since 1994.
In 2021, when former President Biden was in the White House, Republicans hit back in the state's off-year elections, when the party won back control of the House of Delegates and Youngkin won the gubernatorial contest.
When asked about whether Trump's presence in the White House will impact the gubernatorial race, Earle-Sears said the race is about her and Spanberger.
'This race is about Abigail Spanberger and me and the commonsense ideas that I stand for. People can differentiate and make that distinction,' Earle-Sears said.