Fantasy Football 2025: Lean into ambiguous backfield situations with Commanders, Giants, others

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a day ago

You like certainty. I like certainty. We all love certainty.
That search for certainty translates to fantasy football in one particular, predictable way: We want running backs who are guaranteed a decent weekly workload. We don't want to guess whether a running back will see eight touches or twelve or sixteen or none at all. We want to know. So we gravitate toward backfields that offer us at least some certainty.
We take the backs who have the primary back job locked down. We turn up our noses at the uncertainty of backfields that may or may not feature one guy, or maybe split the workload between two guys, or worse yet, do the three-headed backfield monster thing -- the stuff of nightmares for those who like to pretend they can predict the future.
But ambiguity creates opportunity. You're not the only one who doesn't know which running back might get the lead back role in a backfield without a clear RB1. No one knows. Those who grind news every day on Rotoworld.com and read NFL beat writer reports and maybe pay attention to preseason playing time might have a slightly better idea as to who is most likely to function as a lead back, but there are backfields with no clear answer. That's OK. In fact, it's good.
That's how we get extraordinary value in the middle and late rounds: Making small bets on running backs who have the profile and -- in the right circumstances — the opportunity to become every-week fantasy starters. Look to 2024 as an example: Tampa Bay's backfield was highly ambiguous going into the regular season and delivered league-winner Bucky Irving. Chuba Hubbard emerged from a muddled Carolina backfield to be (very) useful in the final six weeks of the fantasy season. Tony Pollard functioned as something close to an RB1 when he had the backfield to himself. Rico Dowdle did the same. Chase Brown went from a backfield split to backfield dominance. It happens every year.
Below are some thoughts on backfields with various degrees of ambiguity headed into 2025. I'm hammering a lot of these backs in best ball and redraft leagues. Dismiss your burning desire for certainty and come with me.
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Washington Commanders
I talked to Commanders beat writer Ben Standig about the team's backfield, and the first thing he told me was to 'ignore the depth chart,' which lists Brian Robinson as RB1, Austin Ekeler as RB2, Jeremy McNichols as RB3, Chris Rodriguez as RB4, and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt as RB5. It's a bleak look for fantasy writers who have touted Croskey-Merritt this summer.
'For all we know a PR intern cobbled that depth chart together,' said Standig, who hosts the Last Man Standig podcast. Croskey-Merrit, who goes by Bill for some reason, 'is making the roster and pushing for a role. The explosive one-cut ability is a welcomed element. With Jayden Daniels, good luck defending read options. He showed good form as a pass catcher capable of making defenders miss in space on the preseason opener. Take Bill as a late-round flyer with RB1 upside. Not sure if that's Week 1 or 7 or whenever, but the possibility is legit.'
Croskey-Merrit in the Commanders' preseason opener against the Patriots had 24 yards on seven rushes and caught his lone target for eight yards. His playing time suggests he has a way to go before he's challenging Robinson for the RB1 role. That's the way it goes for rookies though.
Standing said within the organization there is 'a sense that the staff sought more explosive plays out of the backfield,' which might explain why the team drafted JCM. 'Robinson is a physical back who excels in short-yardage situations, but busting out 20-plus yard gains isn't his thing. He's the early-down back until he's not.'
On Ekeler's role in the Washington backfield, Standing said: 'Less is more with his workload after suffering two concussions last season. When he played, Ekeler showed he still had plenty of wiggle with the ball in his hands. His role is the safest in the RB room.'
Robinson is fine. He's reliable and will get you four yards, whether you need four yards and seven yards. He ranks 31st in EPA per rush over the past two seasons, in the Dowdle/Pollard/Kamara range. That checks out. If Commanders coaches are truly interested in a more explosive back, JCM could get a real crack at the primary back job even if Robinson doesn't miss time with injury. Stash Bill in 12-team leagues and see what happens.
New York Giants
'The thing you need to know about Cam Skattebo,' Giants beat writer Pat Leonard told me when I bugged him about the team's backfield situation, 'is that Brian Daboll loves the guy.'
Skattebo, taken in the fourth round of the 2025 NFL Draft, was reportedly excelling in offseason practices and training camp before a hamstring injury sidelined him. It was shortly after Daboll announced the hamstring injury that ESPN's Jordan Raanan — a longtime Giants beat — declared the backfield competition between Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy Jr. over. There never was much of a competition, Raanan said, and the backfield now belonged '100 percent' to Tracy, the second year back who had fumbling and drop and pass protection issues in 2024.
Leonard, host of the Talkin' Ball YouTube show, was less sure about the fate of the New York backfield. Missing critical training camp practices will hurt Skattebo's chances of securing a decent role early in the season, Leonard said, but fantasy folks should't discount the rookie as a pass catcher and possible goal line back in the Giants offense when he's healthy and up to speed.
Daboll, according to Leonard, wants a tougher, more grinding running attack in 2025. That could benefit Skattebo, who Leonard described as 'compact and explosive' in offseason practices and early in training camp. That the team is being careful not to rush back the rookie from his hamstring issue suggests they want him fully healthy and ready to take on a role in the team's backfield come September, Leonard told me.
'My feeling is that this is a situation where they're going to try their best to not risk his availability for the regular season,' he said. 'You're still probably looking at a longer onboarding for [Skattebo] compared to if he had been healthy throughout August.'
Skattebo, one of college football's most efficient rushers and running back pass catchers in 2024, is a sensible bench stash as his ADP slides, and as Tracy's ADP climbs. That might look silly come midseason.
Rotoworld Staff,
Pittsburgh Steelers
Every headline is telling fantasy managers to hold their nose and take Jaylen Warren at his depressed ADP. It's depressed for a reason: Warren was hurt and generally bad in 2024, and the Steelers did a very Steelers thing and took a big back — Kaleb Johnson out of Iowa — for no particular reason in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Johnson's offseason has been mildly disastrous. He admitted in May that he's always had problems with pass protection, and that he planned on getting tips from Warren, one of the game's best blocking backs. That was followed by several reports that Steelers coaches were concerned about Johnson's ability to protect the quarterback, in this case elder millennial Aaron Rodgers.
Then we got reports this week that Rodgers dressed down Johnson for running an incorrect route out of the backfield during practice. This was reportedly a full-blown scolding of Johnson by the league's oldest player. And we all know that any offense quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers is an Aaron Rodgers offense. He's going to decide who plays and does not play. He's going to decide who deserves the ball and who does not. Right now, that would appear to be anyone but Johnson.
Latter-day Rodgers has been much more amenable to checking down to running backs than he was during his prime years in Green Bay. Rodgers in 2024 had the third most passes to players out of the backfield, trailing only Bo Nix and Jared Goff. Only six QBs had more passing yards per game than Rodgers when targeting running backs. That should be quite the boon for Warren, an efficient pass catcher.
In any case, Johnson — who had 29 receptions over three seasons at Iowa — will get zero passing game work in the Pittsburgh offense. That belongs to Warren. I wouldn't be surprised if Kenneth Gainwell, a favorite of Mike Tomlin, gets snaps and carries over Johnson to start the season. Warren, I think, is a screaming value in the RB30-33 range.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Every analytics nerd's favorite running back, Bayshul Tuten, is gaining real steam in best ball drafts and in redraft leagues with plenty of savvy managers. Tuten — a favorite of new Jagurs GM James Gladstone — will be a (very) late-round pick in what we might call normie leagues this month.
Tuten appears to be behind Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby in the Jacksonville backfield pecking order. The rookie played well behind both veterans in the team's first preseason game. He acquitted himself well in that game, riushing for 24 yards and a touchdown on seven carries and catching both of his targets for 16 yards. Tuten averaged a gaudy four yards after contact per rush, something he did frequently at Virginia Tech.
Jaguars head coach Liam Coen seemed altogether pleased with the rookie's performance against the Steelers.
'I thought he ran it pretty well, actually,' Coen said of Tuten. 'From a physicality standpoint, if you're going to take the positive from the other night, was on both sides of the ball was physical. We stopped the run and we ran it okay, but we ran it when we kind of needed to--it became a little bit more of a throw game. But I thought he did some nice things. He was able to make some guys miss in the hole. He ran hard, he had good ball security, so I was pleased with Tuten.'
Etienne played with the Jaguars starters in the team's first preseason outing. That he's been bad for two years might not matter yet (he ranks 45th ouf of 50 qualifying running backs in EPA per rush since the start of 2023). A slow start to the regular season could see Etienne's RB1 role erode into something much uglier though. Tuten, who had 50 receptions over two seasons with Virginia Tech, would likely get a chance to be The Guy in such a scenario. Drafting Tuten and betting against Etienne is the way I'm playing the Jaguars' somewhat ambiguous backfield.
Matthew Berry and the Fantasy Football Happy Hour crew give their deep sleepers for the 2025 season, naming Washington Commanders rookie running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Buffalo Bills wide receiver Joshua Palmer.