Kentucky Derby 2025 odds and picks: Betting lines, favorites, expert prediction, post positions

Yahoo

03-05-2025

The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby is only hours away with a 6:57 p.m. ET post time at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. It is the beginning of the most important stretch of the horse racing season — the Triple Crown — and is the biggest single day in the sport. We will have live coverage of the Kentucky Derby all day.
Journalism is the 3-1 favorite on the morning line, but those odds will change in the lead-up to the race.
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Yahoo Sports spoke with Lane Gold, host of Kentucky's Winners Circle, to preview the favorites and long shots in the race, as well as get a few best bets.
The favorites
No. 8 Journalism (3-1): "He's won four races in a row, and his only defeat was his first race. Won the two big prep races in California, including winning the Santa Anita Derby on April 5. The No. 8 starting position isn't bad, not the best or worst. The Derby comes down to luck and a good rider. He's going to need a little bit of luck because he's going to break relatively quick, but he's going to be sitting behind the first flight. His jockey [Umberto Rispoli] is an underrated jockey, a rising star in California — this is probably his best shot to win the Derby. Trainer Mike McCarthy used to work for D. Wayne Lukas. This is a Bob Baffert kind of road here, winning the prep races in California. There is a lot to like about Journalism. It's likely that his odds go up because there are 20 horses, and Baffert is back in the Derby. I suspect Journalism will end up at 4-1 or 5-1. He's the favorite, but won't be a huge favorite."
No. 18 Sovereignty (5-1): "He's outside, which is a good thing, probably running the middle pack early on, maybe 7th to 10th. He's a horse that has a better record than Sandman (two wins and two second places in five starts). His worst effort was his debut, when he was fourth, so he's been pretty consistent. Gets a good rider in Junior Alvarado and trainer Bill Mott, who is one of the best trainers to technically never win it outright, but this is one of his best chances to do just that. It used to be you needed three races in your sophomore year to win, but now horses are treated more gingerly. Sovereignty also won a race at Churchill Downs last October. He's 5-1 in the morning line, I suspect that will go up. Sometimes the public will ignore these horses, so I think he'll be 7-1, 8-1 or more."
Trainer Bob Baffert motions to a visitor outside his barn at Churchill Downs on Tuesday in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
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No. 17 Sandman (6-1): "Similar logic applies here, as sometimes being outside is a good thing because there are fewer horses who will be out early on. Sandman isn't a consistent horse in terms of winning (three of eight). Any of the numbers won't blow your doors off with him, but he is a horse who will come from behind. He's going to be sitting 12th, 13th, 14th, somewhere in there, and there should be a lot of speed up front that will help a horse like this. If he's able to weave his way through traffic, he will certainly be a menace in the final quarter mile. He does have a great ride in Jose Ortiz, and his trainer, Mark Casse, is a good trainer in the United States and one of the best in Canada. The owners paid $1.2 million for this horse at a public auction last March, so they saw something in him. He's going to have to have some things go his way."
Long shots to watch
No. 9 Burnham Square (12-1): "He's won three of six, including the Blue Grass Stakes, where he won at the very last moment despite a rough start, which tells me that he can deal with adversity — and the Derby is full of that. There is a home-track advantage since he trains at Churchill Downs, and there's a lot of speed in the Derby. He's probably going to 12th or so, early, but he's coming back to Kentucky where he's based. Not a big-name trainer."
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No. 1 Citizen Bull (20-1): "Do I think he really can win? Maybe, but this is a horse who will run fast early. He has no choice, since he's on the rail. He'll go to the front and has run well, outside of his last race. He's won four of six, so his record on paper is pretty good and you're getting Baffert at 20-1. Stranger things have happened with Baffert. War Emblem got the lead in the Derby and never looked back. The price will be right. He's going to be out early, and you know Baffert wants to win this race really badly."
Best bet
"If I'm betting the Derby now, I would put Journalism on top of a few horses in an exacta or trifecta. I think Citizen Bull is all or nothing, either he's at front or will get crushed. We've seen horses come from the back, like Publisher, who could finish in the top three. The reason I'm staying with the favorite on top is that the Baffert path, which he took, is very likable and he's one of the hottest horses in the race. I think if he gets a clean trip he could win, but I could see a 30-1 or 40-1 horse get second. Pick some of your bombers in second or third and get a nice payoff."