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Yahoo
4 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Everyone's worried about the economy, but executives have been talking less about a recession
This summer, creeping optimism has crashed into July's flop of a jobs report, President Donald Trump's widening trade war and signs of its potential impact. Sentiment on the economy and the consumer is muddled. IT consulting firm Gartner Inc. IT last week said even small spending decisions among its corporate clients were getting kicked up to top executives for sign-off — behavior its CEO said they've seen in 'every recession.' But overall, executives on quarterly earnings calls have talked about a recession a lot less over the past two months, according to a FactSet analysis published Friday. stock is sinking. Here's the biggest problem from earnings. 'I'm tired of corporate America': My wife and I have $1.65 million. I'm 61. Can I retire already? FactSet searched for the word 'recession' in earnings-call transcripts for S&P 500 companies over a period that ranged from June 15 to Thursday, Aug. 7. Over that period, 'recession' came up on 16 earnings calls, marking an 87% drop from the first quarter. Over that period, the harshest of Trump's tariffs targeting specific nations were on hold or had yet to take effect, and markets had shrugged off his biggest threats. Investors were also awaiting more hard data on the trade war's impact, betting that Trump was bluffing, or hoping the deals he struck with a handful of nations offered some clarity on the U.S. approach to negotiations. New U.S. tariffs kicked in on Thursday. After two jam-packed weeks, the week ahead in earnings is quieter. More detail about how shoppers are doing will emerge later this month, when big retailers like Walmart Inc. WMT and Target Corp. TGT report results. 'The common theme across our food retail coverage includes a consumer seeking value,' BMO analysts said in a note on Friday. Eight S&P 500 companies report second-quarter results this week, according to FactSet. Highlights include farming-equipment maker Deere & Co. DE, as it tries to work around what, as of May, was a roughly $500 million hit from tariffs for its fiscal year. For more on the trade war's impact on fashion, look to results from handbag and accessories maker Tapestry Inc. TPR, which relies heavily on Vietnam, Cambodia and the Philippines for production. Brinker International Inc. EAT, the parent company of Chili's, also reports, as casual-dining restaurants and their fast-food counterparts battle to offer the lowest prices. Earnings are also forthcoming from AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. AMC, Advance Auto Parts Inc. AAP and CAVA Group Inc. CAVA. WeightWatchers' new start: WW International Inc. WW, the company also known as WeightWatchers, reports quarterly results on Monday, after emerging from bankruptcy last month with a renewed focus on helping women through menopause. Weight-loss drugs like Wegovy have upended the way people think about their diets. While WeightWatchers last month said it wants to bring together 'the best tools of modern medicine, like GLP-1s, with science-backed lifestyle change,' Wall Street will likely have questions about the road ahead. Cisco sales: IT networking giant Cisco Systems Inc. CSCO reports results on Wednesday. The focus will be on the company's moves in artificial-intelligence infrastructure, after showing momentum during the spring, as well as in quantum computing. Amazon documentary exposes 'neglect and pain' in many nursing homes. It's only going to get worse. 'I have a great mortgage rate': I need $80K to buy my husband out of our home. Do I raid my $180K Roth IRA? Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
15 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Stock-market rebound to be tested by inflation reports as stagflation threat emerges
Markets are facing a crucial reading on U.S. inflation in the coming week, soon after regaining their footing following volatility triggered by a weak jobs report at the start of August. Investors will be watching closely for any evidence of prices rising in the economy due to tariffs, with data from the consumer-price index due out Tuesday. Some worry that a 'stagflationary trend' risks taking hold, which involves both inflation and the unemployment rate picking up, according to Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab. stock is sinking. Here's the biggest problem from earnings. 'I'm tired of corporate America': My wife and I have $1.65 million. I'm 61. Can I retire already? Hotter-than-expected inflation could 'deliver a reality check to the market,' potentially causing stocks to stumble from their recent rebound in the U.S., Gordon said in a phone interview. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP closed Friday at a fresh record peak, while the S&P 500 SPX finished just shy of its all-time high, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That's after the S&P 500 saw on Aug. 1 its biggest drop since April, on a surprisingly soft U.S. employment report for July that included big revisions lower for jobs growth in previous months. 'The surprise nature of the July jobs report' puts more focus on the upcoming inflation print from the consumer-price index for that same month — particularly as concern about the potential for tariffs to increase already elevated inflation has kept the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates, according to Gordon. A hot inflation reading from the CPI data would put the Fed in a 'tougher spot,' at a time when the market is expecting rate cuts in September because of the softening labor market, he said. The Fed, which is monitoring risks to its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, has an inflation target of 2%. 'Higher tariffs have begun to show through more clearly to prices of some goods, but their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remain to be seen,' Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in remarks at a press conference on July 30. 'A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation could be short-lived—reflecting a one-time shift in the price level,' he said. 'But it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent.' The federal-funds-futures market indicated on Friday an 89.1% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark rate in September by a quarter percentage point from the current range of 4.25% to 4.5%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Traders were pricing in two or three rate cuts by year's end. At a bankers' conference in Colorado on Saturday, Fed governor Michelle Bowman heightened her push for cutting interest rates over the Federal Reserve's three remaining meetings this year. Despite concerns over recent deterioration in the labor market, the unemployment rate remains historically low even with its slight increase in July to 4.2%, and the U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter. Resilient corporate earnings, big investments announced by companies and expected rate cuts should all be helpful for the economy and equity market, said Alexis Deladerrière, co-deputy chief investment officer for the fundamental equity business at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, in a phone interview. 'We are beginning to see the return of animal spirits in the equity market,' he said, pointing to a pick up in mergers and acquisitions and increased volume in initial public offerings. The acceleration is M&A is 'a sign of confidence from business leaders' about their outlook, he said. The U.S. stock market has roared back from its low in April, a trough hit after President Donald Trump announced his 'liberation day' tariffs. The tariffs had sparked confusion in markets as the large levies upended the system of global trade, raising questions about where they would settle after negotiations and what their impact may be on growth and inflation. Read: Apple's stock gains as new announcement with Trump could help its tariff problem But today there's more certainty around 'the new rules of the game,' said Deladerrière. 'We are now in a situation where not everything is clear, but enough is clear for businesses' to make decisions around hiring, investing and repositioning their supply chains to help protect their profit margins, he explained. Still, the full impact of tariffs on inflation is too early to tell, as they've just started to be implemented, according to Deladerrière. Their effect will depend in part on whether companies decide to absorb the tariffs or pass them along to their customers; businesses may also choose to relocate some of their production to the U.S. to mitigate their cost, he said. There are some early signs that tariffs are increasing prices in the U.S., including in areas such as toys and furniture and sporting goods, according to George Catrambone, head of fixed income for the Americas at DWS. 'That tick higher in inflation is coming from the goods side,' while inflation on the services side of the economy is much more 'subdued' after easing since the pandemic, he said. 'You have to look closer at the interplay between goods and services and then arrive at a more holistic picture as to whether or not disinflationary forces are in place, or we're going to reaccelerate because of the tariffs.' Investors will also get reading on wholesale inflation in the U.S. in the upcoming week, with data from the producer-price index scheduled to be released on Thursday. While there's signs that growth in the U.S. economy is slowing, Catrambone wouldn't expect to see' long-lasting' stagflation should inflation accelerate in the near-term. Read: 'The stagflation theme in markets is intensifying': What investors need to know 'You may see it for a three-month period, six-month period max,' Catrambone said of stagflation. The Fed may keep rates restrictive if inflation were a problem due to tariffs, while a weakening labor market would help bring prices down as it would cool demand, he explained. In the bond market, the yield on 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y ended Friday at 4.282%, not far above where it had landed after its steep drop on Aug. 1 — the day investors digested the July jobs report, according to Dow Jones Market Data. As investors watch for data on inflation and economic growth, Jitania Kandhari, deputy CIO of solutions and multi-asset group at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, said by phone that she's been 'rebalancing out of the U.S. into international markets.' Kandhari said that she's not 'outright bearish because earnings have kept up,' but that a slowdown may be ahead in the second half of the year while other parts of the world, like Europe, look compelling because of their fiscal and monetary policies. She described her overall portfolio as 'slightly underweight the U.S.' The U.S. stock market closed higher Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all booking weekly gains. That left the S&P 500 up 8.6% so far this year, according to FactSet data. Amazon documentary exposes 'neglect and pain' in many nursing homes. It's only going to get worse. 'I have a great mortgage rate': I need $80K to buy my husband out of our home. Do I raid my $180K Roth IRA? 擷取數據時發生錯誤 登入存取你的投資組合 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Retail spending jumps in July
You can find original article here Supermarketnews. Subscribe to our free daily Supermarketnews newsletter. Consumers took advantage of summer sales promotions in July to buy goods before new tariffs on imports took effect this month, according to a report from the National Retail Federation. Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up a seasonally adjusted 1.45% month over month, compared with a decrease of 0.33% in June. On an unadjusted, yearly basis, sales were up 5.93%, compared with an increase of 3.19% in June. The gains were the biggest monthly increase since the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor began tracking retail sales in 2022. 'We may be seeing growing inflationary impacts from tariffs since recent data shows price increases in commodity goods, particularly non-durables,' said Mathew Shay, president and CEO, NRF. 'Even with weaker job growth than many expected, consumers still have the ability to spend on household priorities as wages are growing above the rate of inflation.' He was referring to the July jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statics, which showed that the U.S. added 73,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate rose slightly, to 4.2%, from 4.1% in June. Economists had expected job growth of at least 100,000, according to reports. The BLS also revised its job growth down sharply for May and June. Grocery, beverage store sales up 1.43% Sales at grocery and beverage stores were up 1.43% on a seasonally adjusted, month-to-month basis in July and were up 5.42% year-over year on an unadjusted basis, according to the NRF report. In June, the NRF report found that sales at grocery and beverage stores were down 0.13% on a seasonally adjusted, monthly basis, and up 2.59% year-over-year, unadjusted. The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor report, powered by Affinity Solutions, tallies real credit card spending, unlike the survey data used by the Census Department, which is expected to release its July retail sales report this Friday. The government's monthly Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index for July are also expected this week. The NRF July retail sales data got a boost from several big retail sales events, including Amazon Prime Day, Walmart Deals, Target Circle Week, and other mid-summer promotions, according to reports. 'There is some tariff inflation bleeding through,' said Steve Liesman, senior economics reporter, CNBC, in a report on the NRF data. 'It's a very mixed picture, and it's very choppy.' ** Download the Supermarket News media kit here Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
