One of the biggest bulls on Wall Street throws in the towel for 2025 on mounting economic concerns

CNBC

24-04-2025

Even Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha, one of Wall Street's biggest bulls entering 2025, is going back on his optimistic view on equities. The bank's chief U.S. equity and global strategist cut his year-end S & P 500 target to 6,150 from 7,000. The new forecast signals an advance of just 4.6% from where the benchmark began 2025. The old target pointed to roughly 19% upside. Chadha had the second-highest target on CNBC's Market Strategist Survey entering 2025. The only one who had a higher forecast was Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus, who has also cut his year-end target to 5,950 from 7,100. Deutsche's reduction comes as U.S. stocks are pressured by uncertainty on the global trade front. President Donald Trump unveiled earlier this month sweeping tariffs on imported goods. Some countries, including key trade partners China and Canada, retaliated with levies of their own. To be sure, the Trump administration this week signaled it may take a softer stance on tariffs, particularly as they pertain to China. Stocks took this as a positive, with the S & P 500 up 1.8% this week. The benchmark is still down 5% since the April 2 "liberation day" announcement. .SPX YTD mountain SPX year to date "While there have been several attempts at de-escalation there has not been a credible relent on trade policy, while macro concerns have been mounting," Chadha wrote, noting he sees the S & P 500 trading in a wide range between 4,600 and 5,600. The upper end of that range points to 4.8% upside from Wednesday's close. The lower end implies a drop of nearly 14%. "We see successful passage of the fiscal package as potentially prompting a rally, but with any direct benefits for corporates dwarfed by the hit from tariffs, we see the rally as short lived," he said. Chadha also slashed his 2025 S & P 500 earnings per share estimate to $240 from $282, implying a 5% decline from 2024. He added that significant decline in Trump's approval ratings are needed before the administration truly moves away from its protectionist trade stance. "Approval ratings have been falling but very slowly as growth has remained solid and inflation has not picked up yet. A move to the low 40s is likely necessary, while a full catch down would see them down to the mid-30s," Chadha wrote. Elsewhere Thursday morning on Wall Street, JPMorgan upgraded Cadence Design Systems to overweight from equal weight. "The forward CY valuation is appealing and undemanding at 34x, at the low end of its trailing five-year range of 28x to 53x," analyst Harlan Sur said. "Investors will increasingly be drawn to the defensive growth characteristics of Cadence amid a slowing macroeconomic environment and the limited impact of trade/tariffs." Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today's dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You'll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!