Decoding the threat in Munir's desperate talk

Hindustan Times

3 days ago

History is the best place to learn where Asim Munir's reckless nuclear boast is coming from. It's an established fact that Pakistani military dictators aren't particularly gifted with strategic intellect, political discretion, or a vision for their nation. They trade minor tactics for high strategy.
In reality, they end up destroying themselves and damaging Pakistan. Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan, Zia-ul-Haq, and Pervez Musharraf make a straight line. The first launched a war in 1965 and lost. The second lost half his country. The third diminished Pakistan into the 'University of Jihad'. The fourth ruined the economy and globally affirmed Pakistan as a State sponsor of terrorism.
The fifth, Munir, is now using language more alarming than his infamous predecessors, as first reported by ThePrint's Praveen Swami. Infamous and miserable in defeat, dishonour, exile, or assassination.
Munir thinks fate is going to treat him better. But then, of course, he's much more of a true believer in scriptural dogma as he has interpreted it. He's saying that unlike others, he's willing to go for broke, even if it risks taking his country 'and half the world' down with him. To understand where he is coming from, I will pick 10 points.
First, he's attempting to restore the nuclear blackmail that has vanished after Op Sindoor. It was defied in the post-Uri surgical strikes, challenged in Balakot, and Op Sindoor buried it. From where Munir sits, if his nuclear blackmail is gone, what has he got left? This closes his options in Kashmir.
The Indian nuclear doctrine is publicly disclosed and adheres to the no-first-use principle. Pakistan has no such disclosure or commitment. The clearest articulation of the Pakistani nuclear threshold was given in 2002 (during Op Parakram) by its then director general of Strategic Plans Division (DG SPD) Lt Gen Khalid Kidwai. He sent out these thresholds under four heads: Space (significant loss of territory), military (loss of a significant portion of Pakistani forces and degradation), economic (strangulation or blockade threatening economic survival), and political (large-scale internal subversion or destabilisation).
While this is sweeping and non-specific, it underlines an important doctrinal point: Pakistan fully sees its nuclear weapons as a loser's option. That's at least a rational view. Munir is now saying: Don't count on us being rational.
Second, not only is he reminding India but also the rest of the world that Pakistan holds this destructive power and may be inclined to unleash it, whatever the consequences. Thereby, he is trying to shift the global emphasis from the threat in the subcontinent from cross-border terrorism to the fear of nuclear war. In many India-Pakistan crises since 1987, Pakistan has been the only side to hold out a nuclear threat.
Third, Munir is worried India and the US have stopped worrying. He's, therefore, putting the gun to his head. He's taking us back, or at least trying to, to the summer of 1990, when the Pakistanis sent out a threat to the VP Singh government that they would start the war with a nuclear strike. IK Gujral recorded this in his memoir. Munir is now indicating a return to pre-emptive deterrence. In simpler English, it is the return of nuclear blackmail.
Fourth, he's acknowledging that Pakistan has been left far behind by India. That's where what he calls a 'crude analogy' of a 'shining Mercedes driving like a Ferrari' versus a 'dump truck filled with gravel' comes in. So, won't you Indians lose more, is the argument.
Fifth, we can see the bitter envy play out. Mark the reference to that 'tweet we had put out' with a line from the scriptures on how Allah sent birds to drop stones on enemy war elephants and reduce them to straw, with a picture of Mukesh Ambani. Four decades ago, Pakistan was way ahead of India in economic and industrial development. Today, it is far behind and sliding alarmingly for him. He has no solution to reverse this. He's only thinking of stopping India's march.
Sixth, he has further elaborated on his director general of Inter-Services Public Relations (DG ISPR)'s boast to The Economist that, in the next conflict, Pakistan will begin with India's east. Some in India have hastily jumped to think of a collusive attack with Bangladesh. Think harder, especially now that Munir has elaborated on it. The east, where he says 'they keep their most valuable' assets. Now, we know that most of our big economic assets are along the west coast and in the south. What he's talking about isn't economic. What he is hinting at, I'd rather not talk about. Smart people in the establishment would know.
Seventh, he knows that the Pahalgam move backfired. Even if there is no resumption of hostilities, the apprehension over Indus waters will remain. He's reassuring his base with the threat of 'firing 10 missiles and getting rid of a dam' that Indians 'build' on the Indus system. He knows no dam can be built overnight, or in his tenure, however long. He thinks he can brag safely right for now.
Eighth is just a repetition of what he's been saying lately, beginning with that April 16 speech to an overseas Pakistanis' convention, that Pakistan was the only State founded on the Islamic Kalma after the Prophet's Medina. Therefore, the existence of massive minerals under its soil is preordained. This is the snake oil he has sold to Donald Trump.
Ninth, and of the greatest immediate importance to him, he's signalling to his own population that they should know he's fully the boss now. That he hasn't yet taken over the presidency formally doesn't matter. Nor does it mean that he won't do so. Army chiefs always have a tenure, and those wasting away in the line of succession will get impatient at some point. The model that's worked in Pakistan is uniform with the presidency.
And the tenth should set us thinking hard, even as we ridicule Munir. He's insecure. In Pakistan, insecurity doesn't just mean losing your job. You can't hand over to any next guy and go home to play golf. However his propaganda packages it, the world has seen pictures of his damaged air bases. A puffed-up bully is often a recent loser. That makes for a very dangerous combination in Pakistan. The final lesson, therefore, is for India: Be alive to not just the possibility, but the likelihood that he will be at our throats again. History tells us that every Pakistani war has been launched on us through one intellectually challenged man's miscalculation.
(By special arrangement with ThePrint; podcast version on the author's YouTube show, CutTheClutter)
Shekhar Gupta is founder and editor-in-chief, ThePrint. The views expressed are personal.