Most US stocks fall as hopes weaken for a September cut to interest rates

Globe and Mail

2 days ago

NEW YORK (AP) — Most U.S. stocks slipped on Wednesday after doubts rose on Wall Street about whether the Federal Reserve will deliver economy-juicing cuts to interest rates by September.
The S&P 500 edged down by 0.1%, coming off its first loss after setting all-time highs for six successive days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 171 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.1%.
Stocks felt pressure from rising Treasury yields in the bond market after the Federal Reserve voted to hold its main interest rate steady. The move may upset President Donald Trump, who has been angrily lobbying for lower interest rates, but it was widely expected on Wall Street.
What may have surprised investors more was Fed Chair Jerome Powell's pushing back on expectations that the Fed could cut rates at its next meeting in September. Besides Trump, two members of the Fed's committee have also been calling for lower rates to ease the pressure on the economy, and they dissented in Wednesday's vote.
But Powell would not commit to a September cut in rates, pointing to how inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, while the job market still looks to be 'in balance.'
A cut in rates would give the job market and overall economy a boost, but it could also risk fueling inflation when Trump's tariffs may be set to raise prices for U.S. consumers. The Fed's job is to keep both the job market and inflation in a good place.
Trump on Wednesday announced a 25% tariff on imports coming from India, along with an additional tax because of India's purchases of Russian oil, beginning on Aug. 1. That's when stiff tariffs Trump has proposed for many other countries are also scheduled to kick in, unless they reach trade deals that lower the rates.
'The economy is in good shape, but it's in an unusual situation,' Powell said.
He also said that the Fed will receive two months' worth of data on inflation, the job market and other economic indicators before it meets again to vote on rates in September. That could give the Fed more confidence that the risk of high inflation is no longer bigger than the risk of a weak job market, a combination that would prod officials toward lowering rates.
Powell's comments drove traders to pare back bets on a cut in September. They now see just a 45% chance of that, down from a nearly 65% probability a day earlier, according to data from CME Group.
The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 3.93% from 3.86% late Tuesday. It tends to closely follow expectations for what the Fed will do with its overnight interest rate.
The 10-year Treasury, which also takes into account longer-term expectations for the economy and inflation, rose to 4.36% from 4.34%.
A report earlier in the morning suggested the U.S. economy's growth was much stronger during the spring than economists expected. But underlying trends beneath the surface may be more discouraging.
'Cutting through the noise of the swings in imports, the economy is still chugging along, but it is showing signs of sputtering,' said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.
On Wall Street, Humana rose 12.4% after the insurer and health care giant reported stronger results for the spring than expected. It also raised its forecasts for profit and revenue over the full year.
Video-game maker Electronic Arts climbed 5.7% after likewise topping Wall Street's expectations.
Companies are under pressure to deliver solid profit growth. They need to in order to justify the big jumps in their stock prices during recent months, which has caused some critics to say the broad U.S. stock market looks too expensive.
Trane Technologies, whose stock came into the day with a 27.5% gain for the year so far, tumbled even though it reported a stronger-than-expected profit for the latest quarter. The heating, ventilation and air conditioning company's revenue came up short of analysts' estimates, as did its forecast for profit in the current quarter. It dropped 8.4%.
Freeport-McMoRan, a copper producer with mines around the world, tumbled 9.5% after Trump signed an executive order to tax imports of copper at 50%.
Starbucks slipped 0.2% after reporting a weaker profit than analysts expected as it tries to turn around its operations. The company is hoping to boost its performance through improved store operations and new products, including a cold foam protein drink.
All told, the S&P 500 slipped 7.96 points to 6,362.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 171.71 to 44,461.28, and the Nasdaq composite rose 31.38 to 21,129.67.
In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed across Europe and Asia. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.4%, and South Korea's Kospi rose 0.7% for two of the bigger moves.