2025 Fantasy Football Rookie RBs: Is Ashton Jeanty too big to fail?

Yahoo

13 hours ago

Since 2015, we've seen seven running backs drafted inside the top-12 picks of the NFL Draft: Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Todd Gurley, Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs.
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Every one of them entered the league with massive expectations. Some met the moment. Others didn't quite live up to the immediate hype. But all of them mattered in fantasy from the jump.
Now in 2025, Ashton Jeanty becomes the eighth name on that list. And his setup with the Las Vegas Raiders might be the most fascinating one we've seen in years.
There's nowhere to go but up
The Raiders were dead last in rushing yards per game in 2024. They were one of the worst — if not the worst — rushing offenses in the league.
But they didn't run it back with the same squad for 2025. They leveled up.
They replaced a quarterback room that included Desmond Ridder, Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell with Geno Smith. Smith isn't just competent. He's the best quarterback in that building and it's not even close. The second best might be minority owner and retired legend Tom Brady.
That quarterback upgrade alone gives this offense structure. With an infusion of youth at wide receiver, including Jack Bech and Dont'e Thornton, plus the best tight end in football (yeah, I said it), Brock Bowers, this unit finally has balance and consistency.
A Chip Kelly offense built for RB volume
The real story here is Chip Kelly, the play-caller who wants to pound the rock.
During his four years calling plays in the NFL (2013 to 2016), Kelly's teams ranked top 11 in rush attempts per game every single season:
2013: 30.8 attempts (No. 5)
2014: 29.8 attempts (No. 7)
2015: 27.7 attempts (No. 11)
2016: 28.6 attempts (No. 6)
There's no love lost between Kelly and former NFL RB LeSean McCoy, but there's also no denying that Shady was one of Kelly's biggest NFL success stories during his time in Philadelphia.
In 2013, McCoy led the NFL with 1,607 rushing yards, added 539 receiving yards and scored 11 total touchdowns. He earned Pro Bowl and All-Pro honors and finished second in NFL Offensive Player of the Year voting.
The next season, McCoy followed that up with 1,319 rushing yards and five touchdowns, again earning a Pro Bowl nod.
Kelly's offense was tailor-made for dynamic runners who can handle heavy volume and contribute in the passing game — exactly the kind of workload Jeanty is expected to step into.
This is a coach who fed McCoy league-leading volume. Most recently, Kelly helped elevate Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson at Ohio State.
Now he gets Jeanty — one of the most explosive, durable and complete backs to come out in the last decade.
At Boise State, Jeanty posted an insane 151 missed tackles forced in 2024, the kind of number that puts him in elite territory. Over his final two years, he also caught 67 passes for 716 yards, showcasing his ability as a true three-down weapon.
Kelly's offense at Ohio State proved he's evolved. He slowed the tempo, layered his plays, used motion and counter concepts and elevated the Buckeyes' attack into a national championship winner.
As The Athletic noted, his schemes became more creative, more deceptive and more NFL-ready. Kelly leaned into heavy run-game diversity with gap and counter principles, adapting his play-calling to the strengths of his personnel.
The offensive line isn't elite but it's improving
This won't be a top-five line in the NFL. But it's quietly a more stable group than many realize.
Left tackle Colton Miller just signed a fresh extension. Jackson Powers-Johnson is anchoring the interior. Alex Cappa adds veteran stability at right guard. DJ Glaze, Thayer Munford Jr. and Delmar Glaze bring depth and versatility to the edges.
Jeanty's workload projection is massive
Yahoo Fantasy already has Jeanty projected for over 1,200 rushing yards — and that might be light if he gets Ezekiel Elliott–style rookie volume. Jeanty was a complete workhorse at Boise State; the question isn't whether he can handle it. The question is: What happens if he doesn't hit those sky-high expectations?
We've seen highly-drafted running backs like Robinson produce respectable rookie seasons and still leave fantasy managers feeling underwhelmed. Robinson totaled 214 carries for 976 rushing yards and four touchdowns, while adding 58 receptions for 487 yards and four more scores through the air as a rookie with the Falcons in 2023. His 246.3 PPR points were good for around RB17 in points per game, according to StatMuse, but for a top-10 draft pick with 20-touch expectations, the production fell just short of elite.
It wasn't a bust season — far from it — but it serves as a reminder that even highly-touted rookies can fall short of the hype in Year 1.
That risk exists with Jeanty. But it doesn't outweigh everything that's working in his favor.
The Final Word on Jeanty
You don't need to project Jeanty to lead the league in rushing to want him on your roster. You just need to understand what he's walking into.
Volume.
Offensive improvement.
Coaching commitment to the run.
Top-12 draft capital.
If you're chasing a rookie running back who checks every box and could win leagues by December, this is it. Jeanty's not too big to fail. He's just big enough to bet on.
Other rookie running backs to watch
Let's branch out a bit. Several rookie running backs are generating buzz throughout training camp and it's not just Jeanty who might break out in fantasy this year.
Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers
There were only two running backs selected in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft — Jeanty and Omarion Hampton. And Hampton's setup might be just as good. The Chargers lost JK Dobbins to Denver, Najee Harris is dealing with an eye injury with no timetable for return, and there's not much depth behind them. That opens the door for Hampton to earn a Day 1 role behind a strong offensive line led by Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. With Ladd McConkey and recently-signed Keenan Allen out wide, I'm not going to say this offense is going to be elite — but Hampton's opportunity is.
RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos
Don't be surprised if you see this name on your waiver wire list soon (I'm kidding). Harvey is currently listed fifth on Denver's depth chart, despite repping as the No. 2 back in practice. That discrepancy suggests head coach Sean Payton already has a plan for him. In college at UCF, Harvey posted over 50 carries of at least 10 yards and led the FBS with 23.3% of rushes going for double-digit gains. That kind of chunk-play ability makes him hard to ignore in fantasy formats once games count.
Don't let J.K. Dobbins scare you, Harvey will be just fine.
Kaleb Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Although Jaylen Warren projects as the starter and Kenneth Gainwell is the proven backup, Johnson is just one good preseason game away from shaking up the Steelers' depth chart before the season starts. The Iowa product finished his final college season with over 1,500 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns, and he's already getting praise from head coach Mike Tomlin for his engagement and conditioning. Johnson's physicality and receiving chops make him an intriguing upside play.
TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots
Reports out of Foxborough have Henderson's receiving ability drawing glowing reviews at camp. He hauled in at least two long touchdown catches from QB Drake Maye during a full-pad session this past week. At the same time, veteran RB Rhamondre Stevenson's ongoing fumble issues have the Patriots rotating reps — leaving real room for Henderson to carve out third-down work early and maybe more as the year progresses.