Kentucky Derby 2025 odds and picks: Betting lines, favorites, expert prediction, post positions
The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby is only hours away with a 6:57 p.m. ET post time at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. It is the beginning of the most important stretch of the horse racing season — the Triple Crown — and is the biggest single day in the sport. We will have live coverage of the Kentucky Derby all day.
Journalism is the 3-1 favorite on the morning line, but those odds will change in the lead-up to the race.
Yahoo Sports spoke with Lane Gold, host of Kentucky's Winners Circle, to preview the favorites and long shots in the race, as well as get a few best bets.
No. 8 Journalism (3-1): "He's won four races in a row, and his only defeat was his first race. Won the two big prep races in California, including winning the Santa Anita Derby on April 5. The No. 8 starting position isn't bad, not the best or worst. The Derby comes down to luck and a good rider. He's going to need a little bit of luck because he's going to break relatively quick, but he's going to be sitting behind the first flight. His jockey [Umberto Rispoli] is an underrated jockey, a rising star in California — this is probably his best shot to win the Derby. Trainer Mike McCarthy used to work for D. Wayne Lukas. This is a Bob Baffert kind of road here, winning the prep races in California. There is a lot to like about Journalism. It's likely that his odds go up because there are 20 horses, and Baffert is back in the Derby. I suspect Journalism will end up at 4-1 or 5-1. He's the favorite, but won't be a huge favorite."
No. 18 Sovereignty (5-1): "He's outside, which is a good thing, probably running the middle pack early on, maybe 7th to 10th. He's a horse that has a better record than Sandman (two wins and two second places in five starts). His worst effort was his debut, when he was fourth, so he's been pretty consistent. Gets a good rider in Junior Alvarado and trainer Bill Mott, who is one of the best trainers to technically never win it outright, but this is one of his best chances to do just that. It used to be you needed three races in your sophomore year to win, but now horses are treated more gingerly. Sovereignty also won a race at Churchill Downs last October. He's 5-1 in the morning line, I suspect that will go up. Sometimes the public will ignore these horses, so I think he'll be 7-1, 8-1 or more."
No. 17 Sandman (6-1): "Similar logic applies here, as sometimes being outside is a good thing because there are fewer horses who will be out early on. Sandman isn't a consistent horse in terms of winning (three of eight). Any of the numbers won't blow your doors off with him, but he is a horse who will come from behind. He's going to be sitting 12th, 13th, 14th, somewhere in there, and there should be a lot of speed up front that will help a horse like this. If he's able to weave his way through traffic, he will certainly be a menace in the final quarter mile. He does have a great ride in Jose Ortiz, and his trainer, Mark Casse, is a good trainer in the United States and one of the best in Canada. The owners paid $1.2 million for this horse at a public auction last March, so they saw something in him. He's going to have to have some things go his way."
No. 9 Burnham Square (12-1): "He's won three of six, including the Blue Grass Stakes, where he won at the very last moment despite a rough start, which tells me that he can deal with adversity — and the Derby is full of that. There is a home-track advantage since he trains at Churchill Downs, and there's a lot of speed in the Derby. He's probably going to 12th or so, early, but he's coming back to Kentucky where he's based. Not a big-name trainer."
No. 1 Citizen Bull (20-1): "Do I think he really can win? Maybe, but this is a horse who will run fast early. He has no choice, since he's on the rail. He'll go to the front and has run well, outside of his last race. He's won four of six, so his record on paper is pretty good and you're getting Baffert at 20-1. Stranger things have happened with Baffert. War Emblem got the lead in the Derby and never looked back. The price will be right. He's going to be out early, and you know Baffert wants to win this race really badly."
"If I'm betting the Derby now, I would put Journalism on top of a few horses in an exacta or trifecta. I think Citizen Bull is all or nothing, either he's at front or will get crushed. We've seen horses come from the back, like Publisher, who could finish in the top three. The reason I'm staying with the favorite on top is that the Baffert path, which he took, is very likable and he's one of the hottest horses in the race. I think if he gets a clean trip he could win, but I could see a 30-1 or 40-1 horse get second. Pick some of your bombers in second or third and get a nice payoff."
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The Derby 2025: horse-by-horse guide to all the runners
Al Wasl Storm Trainer/jockey Owen Burrows/David Probert, stall 13 One of two runners in the green and white silks of Ahmad al Shaikh, whose twin passions in racing appear to be having runners in the Derby and paying as little as possible to buy them. It is a hard approach to knock, however, as Khalifa Sat, at 150-1, and Hoo Ya Mal, at 50-1, reached the frame in 2020 and 2022 respectively. Advertisement In terms of value at least, the owner has excelled himself here, having paid €7,000 for the son of an obscure stallion Affinisea (so obscure that even his trainer admits he had to look him up when al Shaikh's latest purchase turned up on his doorstep). That said, a realistic view of his form – unraced at two, three runs since April, one minor win – gives him next to no chance of success, so each-way backers hoping for lightning to strike a third time are relying on the fact that, like his high-achieving predecessors, he can't read the form book. Damysus John & Thady Gosden/James Doyle, stall 15 One of the least experienced in the field with three outings in the book and it showed behind Pride Of Arras in the Dante at York last time. He took a few strides to go through the gears, edging left, before running on to finish second, one-and-a-quarter lengths behind the winner. He did not see a racecourse until December and the rough edges in the Dante offer encouragement there is significant improvement to come,. Definitely an unusual profile for a potential Derby winner – maiden win on the all-weather in December, then two defeats at the start of his three-year-old season – but the talent is probably there if this unique test does not prove to be a step too far at this early stage of his career. Delacroix Aidan O'Brien/Ryan Moore, stall 14 Effectively confirmed as favourite when Ryan Moore plumped for the ride on Wednesday from three Aidan O'Brien options and there was a lot to like about the way he put nearly three lengths between himself and the runner-up in Leopardstown's Derby Trial last month. He had solid, progressive form in his juvenile season too, culminating in defeat by a nose in the Group One Futurity at Doncaster, and the 12-furlong trip should be right up his street. The Leopardstown trial has not highlighted a Derby winner since 2002, however, and it was his seventh race, which leaves less room for improvement than most of his opponents Whether the pluses and minuses make him a genuine 3-1 shot is the first question every punter needs to consider. There are tempting options at better odds, and with more room scope for improvement, if they decide against it. Green Storm Charlie Johnston/Billy Loughnane, stall eight The other half ofal Shaikh's two-pronged attack and his second-string behind Al Wasl Storm according to the betting, although since both are priced in three figures the concept of a first string is perhaps irrelevant. In typical al Shaikh fashion, he cost relative peanuts, having been knocked down for €12,000 as a yearling (Damysus cost nearly 50 times as much). He has already repaid that several times over after finishing one-and-a-half lengths behind Tennessee Storm in a French Group One event last October. Likely to be remembered only as the first Derby ride for the 19-year-old Billy Loughnane, the fastest-rising young star in the weighing room. Lambourn Aidan O'Brien/Wayne Lordan, stall 10 The third-string in his trainer's challenge for a record-extending 11th Derby according to the betting, but since only three of O'Brien's winners set off as the clear favourite, that is perhaps not quite the red flag it may seem. Rain would be in his favour as he stayed on strongly to win the Chester Vase over an extended 12 furlongs last time out and also has winning form on soft ground, albeit in a weak event at the remote French racing outpost of Craon. Likely to be staying on most strongly in the closing stages, though the obvious concern is that a lack of tactical speed early in the race will leave him with too much to do. Lazy Griff Charlie Johnston/Christophe Soumillon, stall three Finished just over a length behind the winner when second in the Chester Vase last month, which is a near-facsimile of the profile Wings Of Eagles brought before his 40-1 Derby victory in 2017. Adayar, in 2021, was another recent winner who was beaten in his trial and with jockey Christophe Soumillon flying in can catch the eye of each-way punters. Any rain will be in his favour. Midak Francis-Henri Graffard/Mickael Barzalona, stall four This year's race is being run in memory of Aga Khan IV, who died in February and whose five Derby winners as an owner included Shergar, whose 10-length winning margin in 1981 remains the record. This late arrival will carry the same green and red colours to the start. It is clearly asking a lot for him to bring them back again in similar style, but he remains unbeaten after three starts and showed a fine turn of foot to quicken clear in the Prix Greffulhe at Saint-Cloud in May – the same race Pour Moi, the last French-trained Derby winner and with Mickael Barzalona in the saddle to boot, used as their stepping stone to Epsom immortality in 2011. New Ground Henri Devin/Alexis Pouchin, stall 17 The powerful Juddmonte operation stumped up £75k to add Henri Devin's colt to the field so he has clearly been showing a good deal more at home than he has on the track. He has finished a close third – at Longchamp and Chantilly – on his two outings this year. In the first of those, he was less than a length behind Andre Fabre's Cualificar, who finished a half-length behind the winner (and from a much wider draw) in the French Derby at Chantilly last Sunday. The 12-furlong trip is also likely to see further improvement. The case in his favour is based on ifs, buts and maybes and he will do well to reach the fourth place required to get his entry fee back. Nightime Dancer Richard Hannon/Jamie Spencer, stall nine Set off as an unfancied 9-1 shot for the Lingfield Derby Trial – which looks below-par this year – and was beaten nearly four lengths behind Aidan O'Brien's Puppet Master, who was taken out of this race before the final declarations. Has masses of stamina in his pedigree but rather less of the speed a Derby winner needs to go with it. The St Leger already looks a more convincing option even if he is up to running in Group One company (and the jury is out on that too). Nightwalker John & Thady Gosden/Tom Marquand, stall five Finished fifth of 11 in the Dante Stakes at York last month, three-and-a-half lengths behind Pride Of Arras and two-and-a-quarter behind his stable companion, Damysus. Since that was his fifth start there is no obvious reason why he should improve past either of those colts, who have fewer miles on the clock. Bare form does not tell the whole story as he fell out of the stalls and was well off the pace before making eye-catching progress. He joined Damysus on a jaunt down the hill and around Tattenham Corner on gallops morning last week and handled the track well. He seems sure to improve for the mile-and-a-half trip and a top-four finish may not be beyond him. 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David and Vimy Aykroyd have four mares at their Yorkshire stud farm and their once-raced colt by up-and-coming sire New Bay was an 18-1 shot for his trial at York. He showed all the attributes you would look for in a Derby winner – tactical speed, balance, a turn of foot and a willingness to quicken between horses – on the way to victory. His best days are ahead of him with two runs in the book. Soft ground could be a concern – though the same is true for many of his rivals – but he stayed on well on Knavesmire, should get the trip and is a must for any shortlist. Rogue Impact James Owen/Luke Morris, stall one As ever, there is a scattering of runners ithat are seemingly there mainly to give their owners a day out. While James Owen is very much one of the trainers of the moment, with a number of decent winners on the Flat and over jumps since taking out a licence three seasons ago, this syndicate-owned runner seems to fall squarely into that category. Well beaten in the Lingfield Trial and the slimmest hope of any on that form. Last of six in what looked a poor renewal of that race last time and while a repeat of his winning form in a maiden in April should be enough to finish in front of Al Wasl Storm – who was a length-and-a-quarter away in second – the other 18 runners will be more of a problem. Ruling Court Charlie Appleby/William Buick, stall seven A Classic winner already in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket last month and the form of that race received a significant boost when City Of Gold, the runner-up, ran away with the Irish equivalent a couple of weeks ago. That is more than enough to send him to Epsom at the top of the ratings – Timeform has him 4lb clear – but the obvious question is whether his stamina will stretch to another half-mile. The recent record of Guineas winners in the Derby is distinctly mixed with the past three – Dawn Approach, Saxon Warrior and Kameko – all beaten after setting off as favourite. If he stays, he will probably win. If he does not, he certainly won't. Sea Scout Simon & Ed Crisford/Harry Davies, stall 18 The only runner in the field with a 'C' – for previous course winner – against his name, thanks to a narrow success in the Blue Riband Trial over 10 furlongs in April and this is a track that can take some getting used to, running downhill at speed. That is pretty much the only tick in a positive box and the same was true of many previous winners of the same race (in recent years, it has guaranteed a place in the Derby lineup so there is often no reason not to run). The last Blue Riband winner to follow up was Blue Peter in 1939. Stanhope Gardens Ralph Beckett/Hector Crouch, stall two There has been plenty of attention on the trainer's prime contender, Pride Of Arras, but less of a focus on his second string, who has had an unconventional preparation but has some interesting form. The most obvious is a close second behind Delacroix in the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket last October and it is notable that Beckett has made every effort to get him to the post, even persuading Salisbury to stage a race at an evening meeting last month that would give him much-needed prep for the Classic. Stanhope Gardens duly made short work of two opponents and there is little doubt his trainer sees him as a serious contender. Well adrift of his stable companion in the betting and the ratings, but probably close to the top of many punters' lists for each-way purposes. Tennessee Stud Joseph O'Brien/Dylan Browne McMonagle, stall 12 A Group One winner as a two-year-old in the Critérium de Saint-Cloud, a race that has been won by plenty of top-class colts on the way to a glittering three-year-old career. So far so good in terms of his record at the highest level – Ruling Court, the 2,000 Guineas winner, is the only other in the field with a previous Group One success. On the downside, last season's Critérium – when Green Storm was second – had three runners and was probably the weakest in the race's history. Returned to action in Leopardstown's Derby trial, where he finished around six-and-a-half lengths behind Delacroix. He was noticeably weak in the market beforehand – the implication being that he should improve significantly for the run – but seven lengths is probably asking too much. The Lion In Winter Aidan O'Brien/Colin Keane, stall 19 The undoubted enigma of the race, not least as his trainer's Derby winners in the past two seasons have been bouncing back from disappointing runs on seasonal debuts. Unlike Auguste Rodin in 2023 and City Of Troy last year, however, The Lion In Winter has been passed over by Ryan Moore after surrendering his unbeaten record with a tame sixth behind Pride Of Arras in the Dante at York. He is bred to appreciate the step up in trip and handed Ruling Court the only defeat of his career, in the Acomb Stakes at York last August, but will struggle to get home if he again fails to settle. A draw in the widest stall may not help in that regard. Respected if only because he has the initials 'A.P.O'B' on his saddlecloth, but the Moore Factor – or rather, the lack-of-Moore Factor – has to be a concern. Tornado Alert Saeed bin Suroor/Oisin Murphy, stall 11 The racing landscape has changed significantly since Saeed bin Suroor saddled Lammtarra to win the Derby in 1995, in the earliest years of the Godolphin operation. The trainer's fortunes within the organisation have since waxed and waned, to the point where the man who won four UK trainers' championships between 1996 and 2004 is now a furlong behind Charlie Appleby, his near-neighbour in Newmarket, in the pecking order. 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