Forecasters say waters are warm enough for tropical storms. What to expect in Jacksonville
However, when you're talking about water temperatures during hurricane season, that's not a good combination. And water temperatures from the coast of Africa to the Gulf and southwestern Atlantic are at or above 80 degrees, which supports tropical development, according to AccuWeather.
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What's the weather in Jacksonville today, July 31, 2025?
Today, Jacksonville continues its scorching heat. The National Weather Service has issued another Heat Advisory, in effect from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m. for all of Northeast and North Central Florida, as well as Southeast Georgia.
Temperatures are expected to reach the mid-to-upper 90s, and when combined with high humidity, the heat index — or "feels like" temperature — could soar between 106 and 112 degrees across the region.
The National Weather Service is calling for mostly sunny skies and a slight 10 percent chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms late this afternoon, after 5 p.m. Southwest winds will persist at around 9 mph.
Tonight, conditions remain warm and muggy with a low around 78 degrees. A 10 percent chance of early evening storms is possible before 8 p.m., followed by partly cloudy skies and light southwest winds between 6 and 8 mph.
Record-breaking: Heat wave causes back-to-back record-setting days for JEA electric demand
Is there a hurricane developing near Jacksonville?
No, the National Hurricane Center anticipates no tropical activity over the next seven days. AccuWeather forecasters are keeping an eye on an area showing potential for development off the U.S. East Coast in early August.
"Historically, there have been about 30 August U.S. major hurricane landfalls in the last 175 years, with a clear preference for these most powerful storms to strike the western Gulf," said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
When do most hurricanes develop?
Most storms develop between mid-August and mid-October, and forecasters said several signs are out there indicating activity will be picking up.
The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Dexter. The fourth named storm in the Atlantic basin typically arrives Aug. 15, with the average first hurricane forming Aug. 11.
Forecasters warn now is the time to prepare for a hurricane, and you can save on hurricane supplies starting Aug. 1. Florida eliminated the two-week disaster preparedness tax holiday this year. Instead, a permanent ban on sales taxes for certain hurricane supplies begins Friday, Aug. 1.
In the Pacific, forecasters are watching five tropical systems, including the seventh named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Gilmore.
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Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. July 31:
What is the National Hurricane Center tracking in the tropics?
The National Hurricane Center is tracking four tropical waves in the Atlantic basin, including two in the Caribbean.
Tropical wave 1: A broad tropical wave has been relocated along 43W, south of 22N, is moving west at 11 to 17 mph.
Tropical wave 2: A weak central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 18N, moving westward around 11 mph.
Tropical wave 3: An central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 19N, moving westward around 11 mph.
Tropical wave 4: A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, south of 18N, moving westward around 11 mph.
Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
No tropical development is expected in the Atlantic basin over the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
"In the coming days, we will be watching the zone from northeast of Florida to just off the Carolina coast for tropical development," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
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Fronts that stall near the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic sometimes can slowly brew a tropical storm or a storm that forms along the front and becomes tropical over time, according to AccuWeather.
"Roughly from Saturday, Aug. 2, to Tuesday, Aug. 5, is the time frame for a tropical storm to develop just off the U.S. southern Atlantic coast," DaSilva said.
Steering breezes would likely guide that storm farther away from the U.S. later next week.
Regardless, tropical moisture that interacts with the stalled front and low pressure associated with a brewing storm is likely to unleash torrential downpours along the southern Atlantic coast to the northeastern Gulf coast from this weekend to early next week.
"Before August slips away like a moment in time, it's more likely than not the U.S. will have to deal with at least some kind of tropical threat, probably in the final third of the month," Truchelut said.
"Historically, there have been about 30 August U.S. major hurricane landfalls in the last 175 years, with a clear preference for these most powerful storms to strike the western Gulf."
Pacific remains active with formation of Tropical Storm Gilmore
The National Hurricane Center is tracking four systems in the Pacific, including the seventh named storm of the season: Tropical Storm Gilmore.
Gilmore formed south-southwest of Baja California. Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gil is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday.
Formerly a major hurricane, Iona has weakened into a tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Additional weakening is expected through Thursday, July 31.
: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Some additional development is possible, and a short-lived tropical depression could still form during the next day or so.
EP99: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continue to become better organized.Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and if current trends persist, a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form on Thursday, July 31.
An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of southwestern Mexico in the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week.
Most of Florida under heat advisory
Pensacola, western Panhandle: A heat advisory is in effect from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. CT, with heat index between 108 and 110 possible.
Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Another hot day today. Temps will be in the 90s with heat indices ranging from 105 to 112. Thunderstorms may develop this afternoon with potentially strong wind gusts and frequent lightning.
Jacksonville, North, Northeast Florida: Heat advisory in effect, with heat index between 108 and 112 today. Temps are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s.
Daytona Beach to Stuart, central and eastern Florida: Hazardous heat continues. A heat advisory has been issued for all of East Central Florida again today. Isolated to scattered and moving inland with the sea breeze in the afternoon and evening.
South Florida: Temperatures this afternoon will again reach the 90s across South Florida.
Southwest, western Florida: Another hot and mostly dry day. Heat continues to be the main impact. The heat advisory has been expanded to include more of West Central Florida. Better rain chances return this weekend.
2025 hurricane season so far
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Here's when this year's named storms have developed, compared to historical averages:
Tropical Storm Andrea: formed June 24. Average start date: June 20
Tropical Storm Barry: formed June 29. Average start date: July 17
Tropical Storm Chantal: formed July 5. Average start date: Aug. 3.
Next up, Dexter: Average start date: Aug. 15, with the average first hurricane forming Aug. 11.
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Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them:
Andrea (June 24)
Barry (June 29)
Chantal (July 5)
Dexter: DEHK-ster
Erin: AIR-rin
Fernand: fair-NAHN
Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL
Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh
Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah
Jerry: JEHR-ee
Karen: KAIR-ren
Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh
Melissa: meh-LIH-suh
Nestor: NES-tor
Olga: OAL-guh
Pablo: PAHB-lo
Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh
Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en
Tanya: TAHN-yuh
Van: van
Wendy: WEN-dee
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Why does NHC say 'tropical cyclone' on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
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This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Jacksonville Heat Advisory and rising hurricane risk in August
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