In India, China inching closer, a Trump role he won't brag about
That's what's perhaps nudging New Delhi and Beijing toward a thaw in ties, cautious yet pragmatic, even as Operation Sindoor exposed the China-Pakistan military nexus. India is pursuing selective economic engagement while simultaneously diversifying its resources and sources.Meanwhile, Russia looks aligned with both, and the old RIC troika — Russia, India, China — seems set for a tentative revival, with all three on board.Trump has tried to take credit for truce of India-Pakistan mini-war, to Ukraine and Russia war, but this is one thing he can't claim credit for.This comes even as the Niti Aayog proposed allowing Chinese companies to acquire up to a 24% stake in Indian firms without prior approval, as the current rules have delayed several sizeable deals, news agency Reuters reported on July 18, citing three Indian government sources."Seems like New Delhi is preparing for a worse relationship with the US in the future," national security and Indo-Pacific analyst Derek Grossman posted on X.Major General GD Bakshi (retired) said China asking for a thaw makes "eminent strategic sense as hostility with India would put it in a two-front war situation".JAISHANKAR-XI HANDSHAKE AND A DIPLOMATIC MESSAGELast week, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, on his first visit to China in five years, met Chinese President Xi Jinping. The meeting came after India-China bilateral relations soured after the border standoff in eastern Ladakh that began in 2020.As the two leaders shook hands, Jaishankar, in China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) foreign ministers' meeting, said he apprised Xi of recent developments in bilateral ties and conveyed the greetings of President Droupadi Murmu and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.advertisement"Called on President Xi Jinping this morning in Beijing along with my fellow SCO Foreign Ministers. Conveyed the greetings of President Droupadi Murmu and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Apprised President Xi of the recent development of our bilateral ties. Value the guidance of our leaders in that regard," Jaishankar posted on X.Jaishankar touched upon the border issue in his meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, saying the countries must move forward on de-escalation at the Line of Actual Control (LAC). He underscored that differences should not become disputes and nor should competition become conflict.Jaishankar's visit comes after Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh's trip to Qingdao in June, the first by an Indian defence minister to China in over a decade.He called for a "structured roadmap of permanent engagement and de-escalation".These engagements pave the way for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's likely visit to China for the SCO Leaders' Summit later this year.INDIA AND CHINA STEP-UP COOPERATIONIndia, for some time now, has been cautiously rebuilding ties with China.In October 2024, both countries agreed on patrolling arrangements along the LAC, resolving tensions from the 2020 Galwan clash.advertisementDirect flights resumed in January 2025, and Indian pilgrims regained access to Kailash Mansarovar for pilgrimage after six years.Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian supported Russia's RIC proposal, stating, "China-Russia-India cooperation not only serves the respective interests of the three countries but also helps uphold peace, security, stability and progress in the region and the world"."China stands ready to maintain communication with Russia and India on advancing trilateral cooperation," Jian added.Later, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko echoed this, saying Moscow is negotiating with Beijing and New Delhi to revive the RIC format, expecting agreement soon.The RIC troika, formalised in 2002, aims to discuss global and regional issues but stalled due to the 2020 India-China standoff and the Covid pandemic. Russia's push, as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov noted in May, aims to leverage "improved India-China border relations" and "to pan-continental process, including the formation of a multipolar architecture".Through reference to "multipolar architecture", the Kremlin is likely hinting at US hegemony and its erratic use these days.WHY INDIA AND CHINA ARE INCHING CLOSERIndia and China appear to be slowly getting closer, driven by strategic pragmatism. They are cautiously exploring avenues of cooperation to create alternative frameworks, even as the US continues to play its hegemon role.advertisementThe evolving engagement, however, does not imply any dilution of New Delhi's commitment to Atmanirbhar Bharat or other policy aimed at making India an industrial powerhouse.However, the looming unpredictability triggered by Trump's policies, including a proposed 500% tariff on countries trading with Russia, has pushed India and China closer.India heavily relies on Chinese imports, especially electronics, machinery, and chemical technology, and rare earth minerals. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal had earlier resisted "unchecked Chinese investments", but batted for selective approvals.India's $85 billion trade deficit with China is a key factor.Professor Christopher Clary of the University of Albany told the BBC, "India thought it would be a very close strategic ally [of the US], but they were not getting the support they were expecting from Washington".This was clearly visible during the mini-war with Pakistan in May.Harsh Pant, foreign policy head at the Observer Research Foundation, told news agency Reuters, "Certainly there is an outreach to China, and I think it is mutual. China is also reaching out".International Relations professor and columnist Happymon Jacob, in his column for the Hindustan Times, wrote, "Even if none of India's minilaterals with Russia and China deliver anything useful, India must continue to engage them, for geopolitical loneliness can be more costly than the boredom of tiresome summitry".advertisementJacob's observation hints that India's cautious engagement with China, despite challenges of potential threats shaped by historical experiences, is a pragmatic hedge against "geopolitical loneliness".Meanwhile, Niti Aayog proposed easing rules that de facto require extra scrutiny for investments by Chinese companies, arguing that the rules have meant delays for some sizeable deals, reported news agency Reuters, citing three Indian government sources, last week.The India-China handshake reflects a pragmatic realisation of mutual economic dependence amid uncertainties. Trump's erratic policies have catalysed this cautious detente. The thaw in ties might be with guards on, but it's shaped by realism.- EndsTune InMust Watch
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