Commentary: Japan's leader has lost his ‘mandate of heaven'
After Sunday's (Jul 20) humiliation at the polls, whatever mandate from heaven he once commanded is lost.
The LDP suffered a devastating loss in the Upper House elections. Ishiba had already set himself the low bar of retaining a majority in the chamber along with long-time coalition partner Komeito. It failed to achieve even that, even if the final results were better than exit polls had suggested.
It's a rebuke from the electorate that has few parallels outside of times of extreme economic distress, such as when the LDP was ejected from power in 2009 in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.
The brewing matter now is the ongoing trade talks with the United States. But these results show Ishiba no longer has the authority to negotiate them as Japan's leader.
Against all odds, he was elected LDP leader, and therefore prime minister, after a fractious search in 2024 – with a party tainted by scandal looking for a new face that could win elections. He had previously sought the top office on four separate occasions, and had declared this his last attempt.
With little support from traditional factions, and hewing to a more liberal wing of the party than normally commanded power, his goal seemed quixotic. Nonetheless, he saw off the opposition to realise his four decade-long quest to lead Japan.
A CRISIS OF SHIGERU ISHIBA'S OWN MAKING
This latest crisis was largely of Ishiba's own making. Upon becoming prime minister last year, he called a snap election – one that wasn't legally required, and which he initially said he wouldn't seek.
His purported popularity dissipated instantly, and he was forced into a minority government. His period in power since has been a hodgepodge of temporary alliances just to keep government lights on.
Last month, Ishiba oversaw the most disastrous campaign ever for his party in the Tokyo assembly election. Surely, this third time must be his last chance.
He has been so unpopular with his own party's candidates that many asked he not show up at rallies. As a result, the LDP was virtually anonymous, and the party that has ruled Japan for most of the last seven decades yielded the debate floor to the opposition. The vote in 2024 left the LDP without accomplishments to run on, while smaller groups with YouTube accounts and gripes about foreigners promised the electorate everything.
In 2009, as a member of then Prime Minister Taro Aso's Cabinet, Ishiba was among the first to break ranks after an electoral defeat, and call for Aso's removal. Yet now, in the face of a far worse loss, he insists he will stay on, citing the need to handle the ongoing US tariff talks – discussions he has presided over for three months without the slightest sign of progress.
Ishiba's smartest political move has been to exploit the threat of US President Donald Trump to extend his own time in power. He cleverly branded the threat of tariffs a 'national crisis', a phrase politicians previously used to describe the likes of the devastating Mar 11, 2011, earthquake.
REJECTED BY VOTERS YET AGAIN
But Sunday's results leave little doubt. In three major elections in a row, the public has rejected him.
Younger voters and conservatives deserted the LDP in droves, drawn instead to the likes of the fringe right party Sanseito. It's a movement that I believe won't last long, but which is attracting right-leaning voters with its populist talk – and nabbing those who would normally lean LDP.
If, like in Aso's era, there was an organised opposition party waiting in the wings to take power that would be one thing. But the protest vote from a disillusioned electorate has gone instead to cranks and conspiracy theorists.
Ishiba says he must solve the trade issue, but what right does he have to negotiate such long-lasting deals?
No one wants to see a return to the 'revolving door' of Japanese politics. But this is an exception. Ishiba must do the right thing and resign. It's unclear if there's anyone in the LDP who can salvage the party's fortunes. But it's not the current prime minister.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Straits Times
an hour ago
- Straits Times
Takeaways of US-Japan deal include potential gains for Trump, Ishiba and EU
An emerging U.S.-Japanese trade deal could unlock major investment, avert a potential shock to the global economy and may deliver political wins for both U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, though many specifics of the agreement remain unclear. Here's a closer look at the early takeaways: * The deal stabilizes the global trade outlook by imposing a 15% tariff on Japanese goods — down from a threatened 25% — while Japan commits to investing $550 billion in the U.S. economy, a boost to U.S. jobs. It almost certainly averts a worst-case scenario for the Japanese economy. Moreover, if it signals that the balance of U.S. tariff rates are likely to settle in that range, Jefferies Chief Economist and Strategist for Europe Mohit Kumar said: "the world can live with 15% or so tariffs." * Trump gains some political capital ahead of November 2026 midterm elections by reinforcing his 'America First' trade stance and potentially bolstering his influence with industrial and agricultural constituencies while avoiding the market instability that loomed under earlier tariff threats. Still, not every U.S. constituency was happy with the announcement. The decision has angered the Detroit Three automakers, who still face a 25% levy on significant segments of their non-U.S. produced vehicles. * For Ishiba, the deal is a diplomatic and economic win amid domestic political turbulence. Just days earlier, Japan's ruling coalition lost its majority in upper house elections. * Analysts say the deal could serve as a benchmark for other economies negotiating with Washington, including the EU and China, both facing August tariff deadlines. * American exporters could gain broader access to Japan's markets, especially in autos and agriculture — sectors vital to U.S. economic growth. Top stories Swipe. Select. Stay informed. Singapore Judge asks prosecution for more information on Kpods in first case involving etomidate-laced vapes World In landmark opinion, World Court says countries must address climate change threat Singapore 5 teens arrested for threatening boy with knife, 2 charged with causing hurt Singapore Male victim of fatal Toa Payoh fire was known to keep many things, say residents Sport Bukayo Saka the difference as Arsenal beat AC Milan at National Stadium Singapore HDB launches 10,209 BTO and balance flats, as priority scheme for singles kicks in Singapore Over 1.15 million Singaporeans aged 21 to 59 have claimed SG60 vouchers Singapore Cyclist charged after allegedly hitting elderly pedestrian, killing him * Global financial markets are rallying led by automakers. Stocks of major Japanese firms surged following the announcement, and capital inflows are expected to continue as investors seek exposure to Japan's innovation-led growth. * Despite the investment commitments, the deal may not significantly reduce the U.S. trade deficit with Japan in the short term. Critics argue that without stronger enforcement mechanisms or structural reforms, the imbalance could persist. * A 15% tariff, though lower than the threatened 25%, still represents a significantly higher import tax for consumer goods, especially for cars and electronics, which are heavily imported to the U.S. from Japan. Yale Budget Lab last week estimated the overall average U.S. tariff rate under Trump's policy shifts has climbed to around 20% from between 2% and 3% prior to his return to the White House in January. REUTERS
Straits Times
5 hours ago
- Straits Times
Japan PM Ishiba refutes reports of imminent resignation after surprise US trade deal
Japan's Prime Minister and president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party Shigeru Ishiba at the party's headquarters in Tokyo on July 23. – Japan's embattled Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba denied on July 23 that he was about to quit, saying that there was 'not a single grain of truth' in source-based reports that said he would step down within weeks. News of a looming resignation, likely after key political events in August, had threatened to eclipse a surprise trade deal struck with the United States just hours earlier, which shaved 'reciprocal' tariffs from 25 per cent down to 15 per cent. Despite Mr Ishiba's denials, the reality is that his position is increasingly precarious after his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a historic defeat in the Upper House election on July 20 , following a decisive trouncing in Lower House polls in October 2024. The crushing outcome has stirred the hornet's nest and might prove to be a career-ending blow, as the LDP and coalition partner Komeito now lack a majority in both Houses of Japan's bicameral Parliament. It remains uncertain whether the US trade deal, which was universally cheered by investors and economists, will quell the brewing civil war within the LDP and offer Mr Ishiba some breathing room. The Nikkei 225 index rallied, briefly soaring more than 1,500 points to a one-year high before paring some gains to close 1,396 points, or 3.5 per cent, higher at 41,171.32. The trade deal not only provided significant relief – the 15 per cent rate is the lowest so far among countries with a trade surplus with the US – but also spared Japan from making substantial concessions in its two 'sacred cow' industries: cars and rice. Top stories Swipe. Select. Stay informed. Singapore Judge asks prosecution for more information on Kpods in first case involving etomidate-laced vapes Singapore Male victim of fatal Toa Payoh fire was known to keep many things, say residents Singapore 5 teens arrested for threatening boy with knife, 2 charged with causing hurt Singapore HDB launches 10,209 BTO and balance flats, as priority scheme for singles kicks in Sport Saka the difference as Arsenal beat AC Milan at National Stadium Singapore Cyclist charged after allegedly hitting elderly pedestrian, killing him Singapore Over 1.15 million Singaporeans aged 21 to 59 have claimed SG60 vouchers Singapore Singapore Oceanarium will enhance tourism while supporting sustainability: Grace Fu However, it does not erase the precedent of Japanese leaders resigning in disgrace after electoral setbacks, a fate Mr Ishiba is resisting . At a half-hour news conference on July 21, Mr Ishiba used the word 'responsibility' 10 times as he tried to justify his leadership. He held his ground when confronted about apparent double standards, having been vocal for then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's resignation in 2007 after the coalition lost its Upper House majority in that year's election. Mr Ishiba countered that all he wanted was for Mr Abe to 'offer his sincere explanations as to why he should remain' – something he said he was now doing. He added that the LDP remained the largest party in the Diet, and cited the 'national crisis' of US trade tariffs as a reason why a political vacuum must be avoided. Now that this 'national crisis' has been averted, two schools of thought appear to have emerged within the LDP. One suggests that the surprisingly favourable agreement terms, after a battle that Mr Ishiba said was fought on ' national interests ', could give him the tailwind to stay on, especially if future polls reflect improved public sentiment. Yet the prevailing opinion was that Mr Ishiba should depart – on a high note, with the trade victory – after a turbulent nine months in power. The movement to force him out if he does not quit on his own accord has been gaining traction. Younger and mid-ranking lawmakers, including political scions Yasutaka Nakasone and Takako Suzuki, are leading a petition for Mr Ishiba to resign. Local prefectural chapters from Hokkaido to Ibaraki, Ehime, and Kochi have submitted formal letters requesting his resignation. According to LDP by-laws, members can force a party presidential election if a majority of lawmakers and prefectural delegates demand one. The party's election strategy chief Seiji Kihara even said that a hard reset was necessary to win back trust, suggesting that the LDP should cede power to the opposition. Two separate polls by Kyodo News and Yomiuri Shimbun this week, conducted before the trade deal was concluded, indicate that public opinion is divided over whether Mr Ishiba should quit, although a slight majority is in favour of his resignation. The Mainichi newspaper had cited unnamed sources as saying that Mr Ishiba 'will resign by the end of August', a timeframe chosen with the political calendar in mind. Mr Ishiba is slated to preside over war memorial services marking 80 years since the end of World War II, before welcoming top African leaders for a triennial summit on Japan-Africa cooperation. In the same month, the LDP will complete its post-mortem into the Upper House election results, which Mr Ishiba is expected to use as a basis for his future decisions. On July 23, Mr Ishiba sought a rare meeting with former prime ministers Taro Aso (2008-2009), Yoshihide Suga (2020-2021), and Fumio Kishida (2021-2024). He told reporters that the subject of his future was never raised during the 80-minute talks. 'Neither have I ever made statements that I will resign. There is absolutely no truth to the media reports,' he averred, adding: 'We shared a strong sense of crisis, that a split within the LDP must never occur.' He added that his immediate priority was to familiarise himself with the trade agreement, given that Japan exports more than 4,000 items to the US, and to ensure affected businesses receive the necessary support. The 15 per cent tariff rate has been broadly viewed in a positive light, with Ms Asuka Tatebayashi, a senior analyst at Mizuho Bank's global strategic advisory department, telling The Straits Times that the impact would be 'much lower and minimised' than the mooted 25 per cent. She added that no quota was set on Japanese car exports to the US, as was feared, while the deal puts an end to months of uncertainty for businesses. Tariffs on Japanese cars and car parts would be cut from 27.5 per cent to 15 per cent. And as Japan promised to buy more American rice, this would be done by increasing the ratio of US imports under an existing 'minimum access' framework that allows 770,000 tonnes of rice to be imported tariff-free per year, above which a duty of 341 yen per kilogram is charged. Meanwhile, Japan would also inject US$550 billion (S$703 billion) of investments into various sectors, including semiconductors, ships and steel . Chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa, on his eighth trip to Washington, admitted that he did not expect to be able to conclude the deal on this visit. Former Japanese trade negotiator Sota Kato told ST that it was unclear what brought the deal across the finishing line now, adding that the LDP's Upper House defeat could have been a catalyst. 'The most plausible theory is that the US was in a hurry to seal the deal before the Ishiba administration is brought down and things have to start over,' said Dr Kato, who is now a research director at the Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research think-tank. He believed the deal's conclusion would hasten Mr Ishiba's departure, but wondered if Japan's next leader will come from the LDP, given that the ruling coalition does not hold a majority in the Diet. Regardless, political scientist Toru Yoshida of Doshisha University felt that behind-the-scenes horse-trading with the opposition will be inevitable, whether Mr Ishiba stays or goes. Or, he added: 'The LDP may try to secure a comeback through a snap election under a new prime minister.'
Business Times
6 hours ago
- Business Times
Japan, EU pledge deeper economic, defense ties as US tariffs hit
[TOKYO] Japan and the European Union said they would deepen economic and defence industry cooperation as both parties navigate their relationships with the US and face challenges from China. In a statement released after a meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa, the two sides said they would launch a 'competitive alliance' to support 'a stable and predictable rules-based fair and free economic order.' While neither side referred to US President Donald Trump's global tariff offensive, the announcement came hours after Tokyo confirmed it had reached a bilateral trade deal with Washington. That agreement eases a major concern for Japan's critical export sector. The outlook is less clear for the EU, which is engaged in intensive talks with the US to avoid a tariff rate of 30 per cent threatened by Trump on most of its exports to America, unless a deal can be reached by Aug 1. The EU-Japan statement highlighted shared interests and values but offered little detail beyond pledges to work closely together in areas such as supply chain resilience, countering economic coercion, cybersecurity and critical mineral supply including rare earth elements. No specific reference to China was made in the statement. The Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement, which entered into force in 2019 to lower trade barriers, will remain the cornerstone of bilateral trade relations, the two sides said. In one new initiative, the statement said a 'Japan-EU Defence Industry Dialogue' would be launched to foster cooperation in the defence industry, a field of growing importance as global defence budgets rise. Von der Leyen and Costa are scheduled to visit China on Thursday, where they are scheduled to meet Chinese Premier Li Qiang. BLOOMBERG
