Where is Xi Jinping amid China's military purge?
Before this, he had been absent from any state media coverage since June 4. That was the day when he met Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko in Zhongnanhai.Meanwhile, reports say that Xi might be trying to tighten his grip on power as China's military faces a sweeping purge and internal shake-ups. Several top generals and defence officials have been ousted or have "gone missing". This amid reports of Hu's aides gaining influence within the CCP.When a global leader, consistently covered by state media, suddenly disappears from public view, it draws global attention.Beijing has offered "scheduling conflict" as the reason for Xi's absence from the Brics summit. It is unusual as this is a high-stakes multilateral meeting that Beijing sees as important in its bid at counterbalancing US hegemony.The Brics grouping has been a bugbear for US President Donald Trump, who sees China as the biggest rival. Trump on Sunday (US time) threatened an extra 10% tariff on nations backing Brics' "anti-American policies".Is a potential power shift underway in China's top leadership? Is Xi losing his grip? Where is Xi? And why has he stepped away from public view? Is all well in Beijing? This is why these questions have popped up all of a sudden.SINCE WHEN HAS XI JINPING BEEN MISSING FROM PUBLIC VIEW?July 7 is almost a fortnight since Xi was last seen in public.This marks his third such prolonged period of absence this year.The absences were unexplained, but they coincide with China's military purge, and it comes at a time when the Chinese economy is seemingly strained. Observers have noted subtle shifts in the stance of state media as well.Summed together, these developments have fuelled speculations about a potential recalibration of power within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).advertisementReports suggest that Xi's grip on power may be weakening, with figures tied to former President Hu Jintao's era, notably General Zhang Youxia and technocrat Wang Yang, gaining influence.WHY XI JINPING'S MYSTERIOUS ABSENCE MATTERSXi Jinping's long absence from public engagements, state media, and diplomatic events, like the Brics summit, can only be described as "mysterious".For the past 12 years, since Xi came to power in 2013, the Chinese state media has portrayed him as an unassailable leader.Xi Jinping last appeared on the front page of People's Daily after his meeting with Singapore PM Lawrence Wong on June 24, following a rare 22-day absence from the paper since June 2, according to a report in English daily The Telegraph.This was a rare break from his near-daily coverage since 2017.During this period, second-tier leaders, Premier Li Qiang and Vice Premier He Lifeng, handled high-stakes diplomatic meetings, signalling a temporary shift in leadership visibility. Premier Qiang is attending the Brics summit.When Xi reappeared in early June for a meeting with Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, world media noted a subdued demeanour and a significantly reduced security detail, half its usual size. The Belarusian press service also described Xi as appearing "tired, distracted, and generally unwell". Earlier, the Chinese President's commanding presence was easily noticeable.advertisementOther diplomatic anomalies did not go unnoticed.The Chinese state television reportedly briefly omitted Xi's official titles during a broadcast – an unprecedented lapse that was quickly corrected.However, when all developments are combined, they may be interpreted as a sign of internal disarray within the CCP, with Xi appearing weakened.XI's ABSENCE COMES AMID CHINESE MILITARY PURGEXi's absence comes at a time when the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has undergone significant upheaval.Since early 2023, key figures such as General He Weidong (Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission), General Miao Hua (Chief of Political Work), and General Lin Xiangyang (Commander of the Eastern Theater Command) have reportedly been removed.The PLA's elite Rocket Force and Western Theatre Command have also seen leadership reshuffles.Currently, General Zhang Youxia, First Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission and a former Xi ally, is seemingly a pivotal figure in the leadership. Reports suggest Zhang is asserting greater control over the PLA, backed by senior CCP figures linked to former President Hu Jintao's administration.Xi's control over the military has been a cornerstone of his rule since 2013, when he purged hundreds of officers and installed loyalists.advertisementThe current wave of dismissals, often attributed to vague "disciplinary violations", suggests either a deliberate effort by Xi to eliminate threats or a loss of control over key institutions.Media reports claim that the "real power lies with General Zhang Youxia," who is supported by Hu's faction.IS THERE A RESURGENCE OF THE HU JINTAO BLOC?A defining moment in Xi Jinping's absolute authority occurred at the 20th Party Congress in 2022, when former Chinese President Hu Jintao, 82, (in power from 2003 to 2013), was unexpectedly escorted out of the Great Hall of the People.The state media said Hu's exit was due to health issues. But footage suggested otherwise, showing a hesitant Hu reaching for papers, Xi looking away, and no one stepping in to assist.Global media and observers noted Hu's reluctance to leave. It was interpreted as Xi sidelining the old guard.However, recent developments suggest a revival of Hu's influence.Reports also suggest that Wang Yang, a reform-minded technocrat, once considered for the Politburo Standing Committee, to be a potential successor to Xi.Wang is from the Hu bloc.Media reports also said that Wang is being "groomed as a reform-oriented future leader", representing a pro-market, less confrontational approach rooted in Hu's legacy.advertisementWHAT MAY BE THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHINA'S LEADERSHIP CHANGE?China's domestic challenges compound the political turbulence. Reports peg youth unemployment at over 15%, the real estate sector as stagnant, and national debt soaring past $50 trillion.Local protests and factory unrest are reportedly rising, and foreign investment is dwindling amid trade tensions with the US.These economic factors might be prompting Xi to recalibrate political structures. But at the same time, analysts also suggest that Xi's reduced visibility reflects internal challenges to his authority.Historically, China has externalised domestic instability through border tensions.The CCP's opaque system makes it difficult to discern whether Xi is orchestrating these changes or being sidelined.Amid all these factors, Xi's unusual absence from public view has sparked questions. And it will only be clear in the weeks ahead if his grip on power is as strong as it was, and if all's well in the CCP.- EndsMust Watch
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