Octa market outlook: navigating one of the most eventful weeks of the year
A packed calendar: why this week stands out
'This is one of the busiest weeks I've seen in my career,' says Kar Yong, financial market analyst at Octa Broker. 'I've been in the markets for a long time, and I can genuinely say I've rarely witnessed such a major concentration of important events packed into a single week. Traders need to be exceptionally vigilant and prepared for rapid shifts.'
Indeed, this will be a rather heavy week with a massive amount of event risk. It features the crucial U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, decisions from three major G7 central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed), several key inflation reports, and, arguably the most volatility-inducing event in the Forex calendar, the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report. Adding to this potent mix, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will release its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, offering a global economic snapshot, while the looming 1 August deadline for U.S. reciprocal tariffs adds a geopolitical wildcard. Furthermore, some of the world's biggest companies will be reporting their quarterly earnings, particularly Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Amazon, Visa, Mastercard, Procter&Gamble, Hermes, HSBC, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron.
ADVERTISEMENT
While it's not unusual for some weeks to carry more weight than others, the upcoming slate of events is exceptional in both volume and significance and suggests a truly historic period for the financial markets.
Here's a list of some of the major news releases to keep an eye on:
Tuesday, 29 July World IMF World Economic Outlook United States Trade Balance United States JOLTS Job Openings United States CB Consumer Confidence United States Earnings: Visa United States Earnings: P&G Wednesday, 30 July Australia Inflation Rate (CPI) Eurozone GDP United States ADP Employment United States GDP Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision United States Fed interest Rate Decision United States Earnings: Microsoft United States Earnings: Meta United States Earnings: Hermes United States Earnings: HSBC Thursday, 31 July China NBS Manufacturing and Services PMI Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision Germany Inflation Rate (CPI) Canada GDP United States PCE Price Index United States Earnings: Apple United States Earnings: Amazon United States Earnings: Mastercard Friday, 1 August World U.S. reciprocal tariffs to go into effect Eurozone Inflation Rate (CPI) United States NFP United States ISM Manufacturing PMI United States Earnings: Exxon Mobil United States Earnings: Chevron
See also
Jurassic World: The Experience Roars Into Bangkok - 8 August 2025 At Asiatique The Riverfront Destination
As you can see, this is an extremely long list that features some heavyweights.
In terms of the top scheduled events, we need to pick and choose what is going to carry the greatest influence. From a global macro perspective, the primary focus is still likely to remain firmly on the ongoing tariff developments. Kar Yong comments: 'Although the U.S. has recently inked new trade deals with several countries, notably the United Kingdom, Japan, and the Eurozone, the 1 August deadline still looms large for other nations. There remains considerable uncertainty surrounding potential trade resolutions with key economies such as Mexico, Canada, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Brazil, and Singapore, among others. Any headlines or official statements regarding these negotiations could trigger significant market reactions.' This tariff tension could weigh heavily on currency pairs like USD/BRL, USD/CNY, and USD/CAD, as markets react to both policy announcements and speculative headlines. Traders should monitor news wires closely, as any breakthroughs—or breakdowns—in trade talks could trigger sharp moves.
Beyond tariffs, the week's economic calendar is brimming with catalysts:
ADVERTISEMENT
U.S. GDP and Nonfarm Payrolls. The Q2 GDP report on Wednesday will provide a snapshot of U.S. economic health, while Friday's NFP report could sway expectations for Fed policy. Strong data could bolster the USD, while weaker prints might fuel rate-cut speculation.
The Q2 GDP report on Wednesday will provide a snapshot of U.S. economic health, while Friday's NFP report could sway expectations for Fed policy. Strong data could bolster the USD, while weaker prints might fuel rate-cut speculation. Central Bank Decisions. The Fed, BoC, and BoJ will announce their interest rate decisions, with markets expecting all three to hold steady. However, forward guidance will be critical, especially from the Fed, as traders parse comments on tariffs and inflation. Jerome Powell's press conference will be scrutinised for any shifts in monetary policy outlook, especially given the external pressures he is facing from the White House.
The Fed, BoC, and BoJ will announce their interest rate decisions, with markets expecting all three to hold steady. However, forward guidance will be critical, especially from the Fed, as traders parse comments on tariffs and inflation. Jerome Powell's press conference will be scrutinised for any shifts in monetary policy outlook, especially given the external pressures he is facing from the White House. Inflation Reports. Australia, Germany, and the Eurozone will release Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which could influence expectations for monetary policy in those regions. The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, will also be closely watched. Here it will be important to see if record-high inflation expectations (due to rising tariffs) are feeding into the actual CPI figures.
Australia, Germany, and the Eurozone will release Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which could influence expectations for monetary policy in those regions. The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, will also be closely watched. Here it will be important to see if record-high inflation expectations (due to rising tariffs) are feeding into the actual CPI figures. China PMI. The NBS Manufacturing and Services PMI will offer insights into China's economic recovery, a key driver for commodity currencies like AUD and NZD.
How to trade this week: risk management is key
Weeks like these demand a disciplined approach to trading. Volatility can create opportunities, but it also heightens the risk of significant losses. Here's how Forex traders can navigate this historic week:
Stick to what you know. Focus on currency pairs you're familiar with. Understanding their historical behaviour and key levels will help you make informed decisions amid the chaos.
Focus on currency pairs you're familiar with. Understanding their historical behaviour and key levels will help you make informed decisions amid the chaos. Set stop-losses religiously. Volatility spikes can lead to rapid price swings. Always use stop-loss orders to cap potential losses, and consider tightening them during major releases like NFP or central bank announcements.
Volatility spikes can lead to rapid price swings. Always use stop-loss orders to cap potential losses, and consider tightening them during major releases like NFP or central bank announcements. Limit exposure. Avoid over-leveraging your positions. With so many events, a single unexpected headline could trigger a cascade of stop-outs. Keep position sizes modest to weather potential storms.
Avoid over-leveraging your positions. With so many events, a single unexpected headline could trigger a cascade of stop-outs. Keep position sizes modest to weather potential storms. Stay informed, but don't chase noise. Follow reliable news sources and economic calendars, but avoid reacting impulsively to every headline. Use tools like Octa's trading platform, which boasts a proprietary feed of curated expert insights, to stay updated with real-time market data.
Follow reliable news sources and economic calendars, but avoid reacting impulsively to every headline. Use tools like Octa's trading platform, which boasts a proprietary feed of curated expert insights, to stay updated with real-time market data. Diversify risk. Consider hedging strategies or trading less correlated pairs to spread risk. For example, if you're trading USD pairs, balance exposure with a non-USD pair like EUR/GBP.
The most important takeaway? Stay focused and avoid distractions. The flood of data and headlines can be overwhelming, but successful traders stick to their strategies, trade pairs they understand, and use stop-losses to protect their capital. Emotional decisions in a week like this can lead to costly mistakes.
This week is shaping up to be a historic one for Forex markets. With a dense lineup of economic releases, central bank decisions, and the ongoing tariff saga, traders face both opportunity and risk. By staying disciplined, managing risk effectively, and keeping a close eye on key events, you can navigate this volatile week with confidence.
___
Disclaimer: This press release does not contain or constitute investment advice or recommendations and does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any actions taken based on this content are at your sole discretion and risk—Octa does not accept any liability for any resulting losses or consequences.
Hashtag: #Octa
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
Octa
Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.
The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities.
In Southeast Asia, Octa received the 'Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024' and the 'Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023' awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Khaleej Times
2 hours ago
- Khaleej Times
Big Tech may be breaking the bank for AI, but investors love it
Big Tech is spending more than ever on artificial intelligence - but the returns are rising too, and investors are buying in. AI played a bigger role in driving demand across internet search, digital advertising and cloud computing in the April-June quarter, powering revenue growth at technology giants Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet . Betting that momentum will sustain, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon are ramping up spending to ease capacity shortages that have limited their ability to meet soaring AI services demand, even after several quarters of multi-billion-dollar outlays. The results offer the clearest sign yet that AI is emerging as a primary growth engine, although the monetization journey is still in its early days, investors and analysts said. The upbeat commentary underscores how surging demand for the new technology is shielding the tech giants from tariff-driven economic uncertainty hobbling other sectors. "As companies like Alphabet and Meta race to deliver on the promise of AI, capital expenditures are shockingly high and will remain elevated for the foreseeable future," said Debra Aho Williamson, founder and chief analyst at Sonata Insights. But if their core businesses remain strong, "it will buy them more time with investors and provide confidence that the billions being spent on infrastructure, talent and other tech-related expenses will be worthwhile," she added. Microsoft shares rose 4% on Thursday, with the Windows maker crossing $4 trillion in market value - a milestone only chip giant Nvidia had reached before it. Meta was up even more, rising 11.3% adding around $200 billion to its market value of about $1.75 trillion. Amazon slipped 7% after-market, after rising 1.7% in regular trading, on disappointing cloud computing results. All the companies have faced intense scrutiny from investors over their ballooning capital expenditures, which were expected to total $330 billion this year before the latest earnings. And until a few days ago, the Magnificent Seven stocks were also trailing the SP 500 in year-to-date performance. SILENCING DOUBTS Microsoft said on Wednesday it would spend a record $30 billion in the current quarter, after better-than-expected sales and an above-estimate forecast for its Azure cloud computing business showcased the growing returns on its massive AI bets. The prediction puts Microsoft on track to potentially outspend its rivals over the next year. It came after Google-parent Alphabet beat revenue expectations and raised its spending forecast by $10 billion to $85 billion for the year. Microsoft also disclosed for the first time the dollar figure for Azure sales and the number of users for its Copilot AI tools, whose adoption has long been a concern for investors. It said Azure generated more than $75 billion in sales in its last fiscal year, while Copilot tools had over 100 million users. Overall, around 800 million customers use AI tools peppered across Microsoft's sprawling software empire. "It's the kind of result that quickly silences any doubts about cloud or AI demand," said Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro. "Microsoft is more than justifying its spending." Amazon, for its part, said it expected second-half spending roughly at the same clip as its second-quarter total of $31.4 billion, suggesting it would spend around $118 billion for the full year. Analysts had projected about $100 billion. Other AI companies have also attracted a clutch of users. Alphabet said last week its Gemini AI assistant app has more than 450 million monthly active users. OpenAI's ChatGPT, the application credited with kicking off the generative AI frenzy, has around 500 million weekly active users. Meta, meanwhile, raised the bottom end of its annual capital expenditure forecast by $2 billion, to a range of between $66 billion and $72 billion. It also said that costs driven by its efforts to catch up in Silicon Valley's intensifying AI race would push 2026 expense growth rate above 2025's pace. Better-than-expected sales growth in the April-June period and an above-estimate revenue forecast for the current quarter, however, assured investors that strength in the social media giant's core advertising business can support the massive outlays. "The big boys are back," said Brian Mulberry, portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, which holds shares in all three major U.S. cloud providers. "This simply proves the Magnificent Seven is still magnificent at this moment in time."
Zawya
2 days ago
- Zawya
Dollar tumbles, traders price in more US rate cuts after weak jobs report
The dollar fell broadly on Friday after data showed that U.S. employers added fewer jobs in July than economists had expected, while last month's jobs gains were revised sharply lower, leading traders to ramp up bets on how many times the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates this year. Employers added 73,000 jobs last month, below the 100,000 expected by economists polled by Reuters, while the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.2%, as anticipated, up from 4.1% in June. Job gains for June were revised down to 14,000, from the previously reported 147,000. 'It's worse than anyone expected and the kicker is that downward revision for the prior month too,' said Helen Given, director of trading at Money USA in Washington. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last down 1.09% on the day at 98.94. The euro rose 1.22% to $1.1554. The single currency reached $1.1389 earlier on Friday, the lowest since June 10. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 1.58% to 148.35. The greenback earlier reached 150.91, the highest since March 28. The Fed has indicated it is in no rush to cut rates due to concern that President Donald Trump's tariff policies will reignite inflation over the coming months. Fed funds futures traders pared bets on how many times the U.S. central bank is likely to cut rates this year after Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday offered a hawkish outlook for monetary policy and declined to indicate that a cut in September was likely. But they ramped up bets on cuts again on Friday after the jobs data. Traders are now pricing in 54 basis points of cuts by year-end, up from around 34 basis points on Thursday, with the first cut seen in September. Whether the Fed cuts in September will now likely depend on the next jobs report for August. '(Powell) did say on Wednesday that we were looking at holding rates steadier for longer, but that we were going to get two sets of employment data before the next Fed meeting. So as this first set has been so decidedly negative… the labor market is clearly, clearly cooling, that's going to raise the importance of that September figure as well,' said Given. The dollar had gained earlier on Friday after Trump imposed new tariff rates on dozens of trade partners. The Swiss franc was among the hardest hit as Switzerland now faces a 39% rate. The Swissie fell against a range of currencies in response to Trump's hefty duties and to his demand that pharma companies - key Swiss exporters - lower the prices at which they sell to U.S. consumers. The dollar was last down 0.82% against the Swiss franc at 0.806, after earlier reaching 0.8171, the highest since June 23. The Canadian dollar strengthened 0.58% versus the greenback to C$1.38 per dollar, after earlier easing to C$1.3879, the weakest since May 22. Canada was hit with a 35% tariff, instead of the threatened 25%. The dollar had also gained against other currencies due to drivers other than tariffs. The yen was earlier headed for its largest weekly loss this year after the Bank of Japan signaled it was in no hurry to resume interest rate hikes, prompting Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato to say on Friday that officials were "alarmed" by currency moves. (Reporting by Karen Brettell. Additional reporting by Amanda Cooper. Editing by Mark Potter)
Gulf Today
2 days ago
- Gulf Today
Microsoft becomes second company to reach $4 trillion valuation
Microsoft has become the second company in history to surpass a market capitalisation of US$4 trillion, following sustained momentum in its stock performance. Chipmaker Nvidia continues to lead the market with a valuation of US$4.4 trillion. Microsoft's strong showing was driven by a surge in its share price following robust quarterly results, with accelerated growth reported in the financial quarter ending in June. The company's stock rose by as much as five percent at the start of trading in the United States, propelled by significant gains in artificial intelligence and cloud computing services. In the most recent quarter, Microsoft's revenue increased by 18 percent, exceeding US$76 billion, while net profit rose by 25 percent to reach US$27 billion. WAM
