Why cutting capital gains tax on home sales wouldn't solve the country's housing issues

CNBC

6 days ago

Real estate experts are weighing in on a potential end to capital gains tax on home sales — as floated by President Donald Trump this week — and whether it could help unlock the housing market.
The capital gains tax on homes hasn't changed in roughly 30 years, but the National Association of Realtors has been pushing for it. They calculate that 15% of current homeowners would be hit with the tax should they sell in today's market.
"Their accountants are saying don't sell the home because of the tax," said Lawrence Yun, the NAR's chief economist, on a call with reporters Wednesday. "So naturally if there was a lifting of the exemption amount, we would see potentially a good portion of those listing."
Yun noted some retirees want to downsize, but aren't because of the resulting capital gains tax, which is currently assessed on profits of more than $250,000 for individuals and $500,000 for couples.
Most of those hit with the tax would have to be on the higher end of the market. The median price of a home sold in June was $435,300, according to the NAR. The share of homes priced above $750,000 that sold during the month was 17%.
The tax only applies to the difference between what a homebuyer purchased the house for and what they sold it at, minus certain improvements.
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Home prices have risen dramatically since the start of the pandemic, up roughly 52% in the past five years nationally. Even with that steep rise, those on the lower end of the market would not surpass the current exemption.
The tax hits high-end homeowners and baby boomers who have owned their homes for several decades and may now be looking to downsize.
"But frankly that's not what really is going to matter for the housing market," Stephen Kim, a housing analyst at Evercore ISI, told CNBC's "Closing Bell Overtime" Tuesday.
"What's really going to matter is a return of confidence. We believe that a lot of the actions that the Trump administration has taken has created instability and uncertainty, and people who are going to make the biggest purchase of their life, they don't like to have any kind of insecurity or uncertainty," he said.
Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather suggested that cutting the tax could actually keep homeowners intheir homes longer because some decide to sell just as they're approaching the level of gains where the tax would hit.
"It's not clear to me this would help the housing market. If anything, I would like to see them reduce taxes on improvements to homes, like if you're putting in an ADU, and that's what increases the value of your home," Fairweather said on CNBC's "Fast Money."