From Jest To Jolt: What Fadnavis' 'Offer' To Uddhav Really Means
Political analysts are primarily asking two questions: first, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has a comfortable majority in the state assembly, so why does it need to bring Uddhav Thackeray on board? Second, if such a thing actually happens, what will be Eknath Shinde's position?
Land Of The Absurd
Events following the 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections show us that anything is possible in this state's politics. Enemies can become friends, and parties can split overnight. A Chief Minister's swearing-in ceremony can take place before sunrise.
The Mahayuti government, spearheaded by the BJP, enjoys an overwhelming majority in the 288-seat Legislative Assembly. The BJP (132), along with the Shiv Sena (57) and the Nationalist Congress Party, or NCP (41), has 230 seats, far above the majority mark of 145. Despite this consolidated position, if the BJP is extending an invitation to an opposition party to join the government, it likely has two plausible motives: one, it intends to further weaken the opposition MVA alliance by poaching its biggest constituent. Two, it wants to replace one of its current alliance partners in the Mahayuti.
If it's the second case, the obvious question is, whom does the BJP want to replace? Fadnavis shares a cordial relationship with Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, and both leaders are aligned on most issues. However, the same cannot be said about his equation with the other Deputy Chief Minister, Eknath Shinde.
Shinde And His Discontent
Since the last Vidhan Sabha results, Shinde has reportedly been upset for various reasons. His first disappointment came when the BJP chose to make Fadnavis the Chief Minister instead of him. After assuming charge, Fadnavis overturned certain decisions taken by Shinde during his tenure as Chief Minister. Enquiries were also ordered into some contracts awarded under Shinde's leadership. Moreover, decisions such as the mandatory clearance of names by the Chief Minister's Office for the appointment of private secretaries by ministers have not gone down well with the Shinde Sena.
Shinde's party is already in hot water due to a series of controversies involving its leaders. MLA Sanjay Gaikwad attracted bad press after punishing a canteen worker over stale food. A video showing Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) minister Sanjay Shirsat with a bag full of currency notes also caused embarrassment for Shinde. Such controversies are denting Fadnavis's efforts to deliver clean governance.
Unease Grows
Shinde is also in a difficult spot over the Hindi versus Marathi issue. While the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena and the MNS aggressively protested against a government circular mandating Hindi as the third language in primary schools, the Shinde Sena, being a part of the Mahayuti alliance, could not join the protest. Moreover, the education portfolio is held by a BJP minister. There is a growing feeling within Shinde's camp that not taking an anti-Hindi stand could cost them in the upcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections.
So far, Uddhav Thackeray's party has not taken Fadnavis's offer seriously. But if recent political history in Maharashtra is any indication, what is speculation today could very well become reality tomorrow.
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