Why are BJP's micro allies in Uttar Pradesh suddenly restive?

India Today

3 days ago

(NOTE: This article was originally published in the India Today issue dated August 18, 2025)In Uttar Pradesh, the smallest players always punch above their weight—and often land the meatier cuts. It's a function of the high-value political real estate market they operate in. So why are the tiny NDA allies who make up the BJP's retinue suddenly acting up? Well, panchayat elections are due next year and the crucial assembly polls follow in 2027. So, they can smell good meat, and piqued appetites have got them all restless. The Apna Dal(S) has begun airing its grievances in public. The Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal (NISHAD) party is threatening to walk out if its demand for SC status for fisherfolk is not met. The Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), which has made fickleness its calling card, has turned up the volume on increasing the OBC quota share for Rajbhars. These parties have historically stayed afloat and thrived by sensing which way the wind is blowing—shifting sides is an innate skill, a tradition. With the BJP facing a two-term anti-incumbency and the Samajwadi Party out shopping for affections, these allies know their bargaining power is at its peak. Where they choose to go could redraw the political map of India's most consequential state.advertisementNishad party Sanjay Nishad, President
Sanjay Nishad, UP's fisheries minister, warns that his party might reconsider its support in 2027 unless the BJP delivers on its promise of Scheduled Caste (SC) status to OBC fisherfolk. The intent was made clear with a bold hoarding outside Nishad's Lucknow home. He has reasons to worry—the SP's ship had loomed large on its waters in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.Founded in 2016, NISHAD represents 22 riverine sub-castes that make up 12-18 per cent of UP's OBC population. Concentrated in eastern and central UP where the Ganga and Yamuna crash the banks, they have a say in 160-odd assembly seats, making them crucial to the BJP's plans. NISHAD feels ill-compensated for what it brings to the table—a couple of dry bypolls even led to a statewide show of strength. Legal hurdles make the SC status demand hard to fulfil, but the BJP will be wary of fishing lines on the opposite bank.Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj partyOm Prakash Rajbhar, President
Om Prakash Rajbhar, UP's panchayati raj minister and expert political weather forecaster, is one of those who gets away with free speech on even saffron icons. Now, he's on the prowl again, having recently met CM Yogi Adityanath to demand a quota within the OBC quota for the Rajbhars.If that gives the heebie-jeebies to the BJP, history explains it. The SBSP, formed in 2002, draws on the Rajbhar footprint in Purvanchal. Its damage potential showed in 2022: with the SP, it contested 19 seats, won six, and hurt the BJP in 33. The lotus failed to bloom in Ghazipur (seven seats), Azamgarh (10), won only one of four in Mau, one of seven in Ballia, two of nine in Jaunpur.Rajbhar was urgently wooed back into the NDA in 2023—restoring the status of 2017, when the SBSP was an ally and he served briefly in the Yogi cabinet. But it was like inviting a thorn back into the flesh. Now, Rajbhar wants his pound of it—and more.advertisementApna Dal (Sonelal)Ashish Patel, ex-Working President
Perhaps the BJP's most crucial ally in UP, the AD(S) seems profoundly cheesed off with big brother. Tensions arose in July, after Brajendra Patel and other founding members split to form 'Apna Morcha', claiming the support of nine of the party's 13 MLAs. The main party, led by Union minister Anupriya Patel, calls them oustees, expelled in 2022 for anti-party activities. Yet, the new front says it will contest the upcoming panchayat polls while, surprise, still backing the NDA. So, who's in?Anupriya's husband Ashish Patel, who has stepped down as party working president, is threatening to quit the UP cabinet itself. He questions the BJP's intentions, suggesting the rebels are being encouraged to fragment the AD(S) base. Fragmentation is wired into the Apna Dal story—the AD(S) is only the biggest splinter of the original party founded by the late Sone Lal Patel in 1995, with a solid Kurmi base in around 20 districts of eastern and central UP. Anupriya's faction has been with the BJP since 2014, while the rival faction led by mother Krishna and sister Pallavi aligned with the SP. Pallavi even defeated current deputy CM Keshav Maurya in the 2022 election on an SP ticket. But again, she's also said to be close to CM Yogi Adityanath, a link that blurs party lines further and keeps everyone guessing.advertisementTo map the AD(S)'s restiveness, contrast it with the quietude of the RLD, which rejoined the NDA in 2024. That its latest ally seems the most solid suffices to describe the BJP's state in UP.Subscribe to India Today Magazine- Ends