Why Union minister Chirag Paswan has staked so much on Bihar polls

India Today

03-07-2025

Chirag Paswan's forays into Bihar's political theatre have, until now, resembled tantalising sketches rather than fully realised canvases. Sweeping six Lok Sabha seats in 2014, repeating the feat in 2019 and securing all five in 2024, these victories glittered in New Delhi, yet felt curiously hollow on the turf where Bihar's real power is forged.Despite commanding emphatic parliamentary mandates, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) has not a single MLA to its name in Bihar. Its sole representative, Raj Kumar Singh, defected to chief minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United), JD(U), in April 2021.advertisementWhen unfettered by alliances, as in 2020, the party fought 135 seats, forfeited deposits in 110 and limped home with just one victory on a mere 5.66 per cent vote-share. In 2015, as the BJP's junior partner, it contested 42 constituencies but claimed only two seats with 4.83 per cent.In 2010, allying with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), it stood in 75 contests for a paltry three victories on a 6.74 per cent vote-share. Even the seismic waves of October 2005—when Nitish first emerged as Bihar's pre-eminent leader—saw the LJP muster 203 candidates, winning merely 10 and forfeiting deposits in 141. Six months earlier, the ephemeral February 2005 election, which produced a hung assembly and its subsequent dissolution, offered marginally better returns—178 seats contested, 29 victories on 12.62 per cent vote-share—but still fell far short of dominance.advertisement
This disquieting record in assembly polls carries profound resonance. Ram Vilas Paswan, uniquely ensconced in eight Union cabinets across six prime ministers—from V.P. Singh through Manmohan Singh to Narendra Modi—was no stranger to political acumen. Yet his vaunted central clout never crystallised into a durable foothold in Patna's corridors of power.It is this very paradox that Chirag now vows to rectify: to transform his father's legacy of triumphs into a resolute regional force, one whose influence is cemented not merely by parliamentary victories but by a battalion of legislators rooted in Bihar's soil.The conundrum stings all the more sharply: while the Paswans have wielded influence in the national capital, their absence in Bihar's legislative ranks has rendered them bystanders to the Patna's realpolitik. Assembly seats are the true currency of power in India's federal tapestry. A clutch of MLAs could furnish the LJP(RV) with genuine bargaining chips in coalition negotiations, permitting it to shape government formation rather than merely applaud from the alliance benches.Such is the prospect that animates Chirag now: to metamorphose his party from a Lok Sabha phenomenon into an indispensable regional powerhouse. For this, he must contest the 2025 polls with unvarnished ambition.At the heart of his appeal lies the clarion call of 'Bihar First'. The slogan evokes his father's rhetoric but demands a sharper, more immediate delivery. Although central ministries enjoy the same protocol rank as of a chief minister, they often appear aloof from Bihar's lived realities—akin to a non-playing tennis captain.advertisementSuch ministers may procure a hospital bed in Delhi or secure a school-admission recommendation, but they stand powerless and pallid before the authority wielded by a chief minister in their own state. In contrast, a cadre of MLAs bestows genuine leverage: the power to compel the machinery of a state government into action rather than confining one to ceremonial niceties. With elected representatives at his disposal, a leader can even hold administrative officers to account, transforming influence into tangible impact.Yet ambition alone will not suffice; the prospect of contesting assembly polls is formidable. Moreover, the BJP-JD(U) alliance may not allot Chirag more than 30 constituencies. Undeterred, he has charted a meticulous strategy. Through mobile surveys and block-by-block outreach, Chirag's team has mapped pockets of latent support, pinpointing roughly 20 genuinely winnable seats.In each of these battlegrounds, local cadre have been bolstered, campaign offices refurbished and veteran organisers drafted in. If Chirag really contests Bihar assembly polls, it will send out an unequivocal signal that the LJP(RV) aspires to be a fulcrum of Bihar politics, not a mere appendage to the BJP or JD(U).advertisementStill, the contest promises to be no promenade. The JD(U), under Nitish, remains a formidable machine, with robust patronage networks and a well-honed coalition toolkit. The BJP, too, is unlikely to cede its share of the Dalit vote lightly, particularly in constituencies critical for its national projection. Furthermore, caste equations in Bihar are notoriously fluid; alliances forged on paper frequently fragment under the pressure of local rivalries.Chirag must therefore thread a narrow needle: presenting himself as heir to Ram Vilas's Dalit legacy while simultaneously reaching out to non-Yadav OBCs and disaffected upper-caste voters weary of fractious politics.Chirag, however, is no gambler. Although he has declared that his priorities lie in Bihar and that the state's call is insistent, he has not relinquished his Union ministerial berth. Had he surrendered the prestige of Delhi's council of ministers to immerse himself fully in state affairs, he would have instantly been touted as a chief ministerial contender. Yet by declaring his intent to contest Bihar's assembly elections while continuing to endorse Nitish for the top office, Chirag lays bare the calculating instincts of a politician eager to extend his reach, yet unwilling to forfeit the security of the position he holds.advertisementChirag knows his future will brighten only if he builds a robust regional party apparatus—a conviction born out of observing his father's restraint in 2005 when a hung assembly offered the LJP fleeting leverage that was ultimately squandered. Now, seasoned by three successive Lok Sabha poll campaigns, Chirag seems determined not to let history echo again.As the campaign hurtles forward, some internal surveys suggest that Chirag's high-stakes gamble may finally be paying dividends. Nonetheless, the ultimate arbiter will remain the alchemy of politics: the conversion of stirring rhetoric into votes, and votes into seats. Even a modest cohort of MLAs could propel the LJP(RV) from the margins of parliamentary theatre to the role of coalition kingmaker—perhaps even the fulcrum upon which Bihar's next government pivots.For Chirag, the stakes transcend mere office; they are a question of legacy. To stride into the legislative chamber flanked by his own elected representatives would be to complete the task his father began but never consummated: crafting a Bihar truly led by its own, for its own. Should he succeed, the very contours of power in Patna will be irrevocably redrawn; should he falter, the spectre of electoral success unaccompanied by legislative heft will once more haunt his party's ambitions.advertisementEither way, the 2025 assembly polls have become the crucible in which the LJP(RV)'s true mettle—and Chirag's 'Bihar First' vision—will finally be tested.Subscribe to India Today Magazine- EndsMust Watch