PM's speech: Clarity counts as the stakes rise for India
The Prime Minister made new promises to revamp India's GST regime by Diwali, launch a ₹1 trillion programme aimed at creating jobs for Indian youth, install a protective shield for all vital installations in the country, get indigenously made semiconductor chips rolled out by year-end, achieve India's target of clean power making up half its generation capacity ahead of time and develop nuclear energy with renewed vigour.
Also Read: India's success formula endures: Let's not falter at this stage
All these matter. But equally important are some nuanced statements loaded with policy intent.
For one, Modi said he would oppose any attempt to harm the interests of India's farmers. In the context of US demands for lowering India's import barriers on farm goods, including dairy products, this reiteration of support for farmers indicates that the government is determined to resist US pressure on this front.
On the Indus Waters Treaty, while the PM's general tone of reference to Pakistan was bellicose, he said the pact would be assessed by how fairly it treats India's own farmers. This fell short of a threat to annul the treaty that's currently held in abeyance, and appears to create space for negotiations with Islamabad on its provisions.
Notably, the PM held up India's diversity for praise, especially the country's multiplicity of languages as a token of India's cultural richness. This may signal an easing off of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party's over-emphasis on Hindi as a binding force.
Also Read: GN Bajpai: The Insure India 2047 plan may need a few tweaks to achieve its aim
The PM laid much stress on research and development (R&D) and the aptitude of Indian youth to embrace new ideas. He called on India's youth and private sector to forge ahead in new drug discovery, artificial intelligence and space technologies.
The country cannot afford to gloss over the stark failure of Indian enterprises to spend money on R&D. As a country, we spend a shameful 0.64% of GDP on R&D, while the US and China spend around 3% and countries like South Korea and Israel spend around 5%. As of now, the bulk of Indian R&D spending comes from the public sector. This must change.
While the PM said that India would launch deep-sea exploration for critical minerals and spoke of the need for homegrown capability in the electric vehicle ecosystem, he did not delve into what may have held the country back in this field. Perhaps the government should look at new incentives to promote R&D in the private sector, such as graded tax breaks for income generated from indigenous intellectual property.
Also Read: Develop human resources for a Viksit Bharat by 2047
India today finds itself unable to raise its level of gross fixed capital formation sustainably above 30% of GDP, but faster economic growth needs an investment ratio closer to 40%—or at least 35%—even if we count on technology to raise the output generated by each additional unit of capital. The result of this slump has been that India's aspirational growth rate is no longer double-digit. Right now, even the annual 8%-plus needed for our Viksit Bharat goal looks like a stretch. Meanwhile, rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) threaten to devour traditional office jobs.
Apart from getting our economic policy framework right, the challenges we confront demand solid progress on quality school education, primary healthcare and law-and-order (with a special focus on the vulnerable). Transformations in these would help unleash the productive potential of the nation as a whole. India is on the move, no doubt. Unfortunately, what still eludes us is broad-based empowerment. 'Into that heaven of freedom," as Tagore put it, '…let my country awake."
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