Opinion trading: India's chance to lead the global prediction market revolution

Hindustan Times

3 hours ago

Since 1991, India's economic liberalisation has repeatedly demonstrated a common pattern: Ground-breaking innovations emerge first, followed by regulatory frameworks. The stories of e-commerce, ride-hailing, and digital payments are testament to this pattern; eBay's early struggles with India's pre-digital trade laws, the initial resistance faced by Uber and Ola, and the years it took for UPI to find its regulatory footing—all highlight how disruptive ideas must navigate ambiguity before achieving legitimacy. Today, opinion trading, also called information/prediction market, platforms stand at a similar inflection point, where regulatory clarity will determine whether India leads or lags in what could become the next frontier of the digital economy. Homegrown platforms like Probo, MPL Opinio, and SportsBaazi are testament to the potential of this sector, aggregating the collective wisdom of over 50 million Indian users to create real-time sentiment markets that rival traditional forecasting methods.
The parallels with other sectors are striking. Just as the IT Act had to evolve to accommodate emerging technologies – information markets now demand a regulatory framework that distinguishes skill-based prediction markets from gambling. The current ambiguity is not just stifling innovation but also pushing users toward unregulated offshore platforms, where there are no consumer protections, no safeguards against fraud, and no accountability. The irony is palpable—India's thriving information markets sector, which contributes significantly to GST revenues and employs thousands, is being held back by the same regulatory hesitation that once plagued other breakthrough industries.
Globally, the race to dominate prediction markets is already heating up. In the US, platforms like Kalshi have gained regulatory approval to offer event contracts, while Robinhood's integration of crowd-sourced sentiment tools demonstrates how mainstream prediction markets are becoming. Perhaps the most telling development is the ground-breaking partnership between Polymarket and X (formerly Twitter), which embeds real-time prediction trading within social media—a glimpse into how Internet 3.0 will blur the lines between information, social interaction, and financial participation. This is not just about gaming; it's about who controls the infrastructure of collective intelligence in the next decade.
The investor interest in this space speaks volumes. Peak XV Partners (formerly Sequoia India), an early backer of US-based Kalshi, has also placed its confidence on Probo—a telling endorsement of India's potential in this sector. This parallel investment strategy by one of the world's most astute venture firms underscores a critical insight: prediction markets are not a western novelty but a global opportunity, and India, with its vast digital population and analytical culture, is uniquely positioned to dominate. The sector has already attracted over $500 million in funding, with marquee investors recognising its potential to create a new asset class at the intersection of gaming, finance, and data analytics.
India has the chance to build Made-in-India prediction tech for the world—leveraging its strengths in scalable digital infrastructure, a deep talent pool, and a culture that thrives on analytical engagement (as seen with fantasy sports' success). Unlike the West, where prediction markets are still niche, India's 50 million+ strong user base proves this model can achieve mass adoption. The 2023 amendments to online gaming rules provide a foundation, but implementation must accelerate. Without it, we face a fractured market—where state-level bans push activity into grey zones, startups struggle with investor uncertainty, and India misses its chance to set global standards.
India cannot afford to be a bystander. With 50 million users, information market is no longer a niche activity—it's a burgeoning economic force. The 2023 amendments to the intermediary guidelines for online gaming were a step in the right direction, but implementation remains sluggish. Without decisive action, India risks ceding this space to foreign platforms or, worse, underground markets. The choice is clear: regulate with foresight, as was done with UPI and fintech, or repeat the mistakes of the past, where delayed policies stifled growth. The future of information markets isn't just about games—it's about who will harness the wisdom of crowds to shape the next era of the internet. The time to act is now—before the future outpaces us again.
This article is authored by Arjya B Majumdar, professor, OP Jindal Global University, Sonipat.