Legacy of U-turns: Timeline of Nitish Kumar's alliance shifts over a decade

Business Standard

3 days ago

With Bihar elections due in late 2025, speculation mounts over whether the state's longest-serving chief minister, Nitish Kumar, will stay the course with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or rewrite political equations yet again.
Once hailed as a governance reformer and now equally known for his alliance U-turns, Kumar has, over three decades, shaped—and reshaped—Bihar's politics through a string of strategic shifts between the NDA, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Lalu Prasad Yadav's RJD-led alliances.
The man once hailed as 'Sushasan Babu' is now equally known for his alliance acrobatics. From 1994 to 2025, Nitish has rewritten coalition logic in Bihar—and, at times, reshaped national politics.
Here's a look back at the flipbook of flips that defined his career—and what it could mean for Bihar in 2025.
Why it matters
Nitish Kumar's frequent alliance shifts aren't just a Bihar story—they've disrupted national opposition strategies, unsettled BJP-Congress dynamics, and altered the arithmetic of anti-BJP coalitions. In Bihar, each realignment resets governance priorities and voter trust. To some, Kumar is a master strategist navigating fractured mandates; to others, an opportunist looking to seize power at every turn.
Either way, his next move could once again reshape both state and national politics.
Who is Nitish Kumar?
Born in 1951 in Bakhtiyarpur near Patna, Nitish Kumar entered politics during the JP Movement of the 1970s. A qualified electrical engineer, he was first elected to the Bihar Assembly in 1985 and soon rose to national prominence. By the 1990s, he was a central figure in the post-Mandal political order, aligning with George Fernandes to form the Samata Party—a precursor to today's Janata Dal (United), or JD(U).
A career of realignments
Nitish Kumar's first brush with power came through his association with Lalu Prasad Yadav during the JP Movement in the 1970s. Their partnership, forged in student politics, brought Yadav to power in 1990 with Kumar's backing. But in 1994, the alliance fractured. Citing concerns over Lalu's growing control of the Janata Dal, Kumar and George Fernandes formed the Samata Party, marking the beginning of Kumar's independent political journey.
By 2000, Kumar aligned with the BJP, briefly becoming chief minister. Though that government lasted just seven days, it set the stage for a more stable NDA regime in 2005. The alliance won re-election in 2010, riding on Kumar's image as a governance-focused leader who had improved law and order and launched schemes for marginalised groups like Mahadalits and EBCs.
The first break: 2013
In 2013, Kumar severed ties with the BJP after Narendra Modi became the head of the party's campaign committee and was declared its prime ministerial candidate. Calling for a 'Sangh-mukt Bharat,' he said the BJP's leadership no longer reflected the secular image the NDA once held. ' Mitti mein mil jaayenge, BJP ke saath wapas nahi jaayenge (We will perish but won't join forces with BJP again),' he famously declared. The JD(U) continued briefly with outside support from the Congress and CPI, but Kumar resigned as CM in 2014 following the party's Lok Sabha losses.
Mahagathbandhan and its collapse
In 2015, Nitish Kumar returned as CM with backing from the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) party and Congress under the Mahagathbandhan banner. The alliance swept the Assembly elections, defeating the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (nda). But in July 2017, amid allegations against then Deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav, Kumar resigned and returned to the NDA.
The move drew sharp criticism, with the RJD calling it a betrayal and accusing Kumar of using the corruption probe as a pretext.
Tensions within the NDA
The BJP-JD(U) alliance persisted through the 2020 elections, though the JD(U)'s reduced seat tally. partly attributed to Lok Janshakti Party rebel candidates, soured relations.
Less than two years into his term, Nitish Kumar once again resigned in August 2022, accusing the BJP of trying to destabilise his party and government. He stitched together a fresh alliance with RJD, Congress and Left parties—returning as CM for the eighth time, with Tejashwi Yadav as deputy.
His re-entry into the opposition camp was seen as a national move. He hosted the first INDIA bloc meeting in Patna in 2023. At the time, he was regarded as a potential convenor of the alliance, even fuelling quiet speculation about his prime ministerial ambitions.
RJD leader Shivanand Tiwary summed up the Grand Alliance's view: 'If Nitish chooses to dump NDA, what choice do we have except to embrace him?'
January 2024: Return to NDA again
On January 28, 2024, Nitish Kumar joined the BJP-led NDA again, marking his third formal tie-up with the party since 2000. The immediate impact was political disarray within the INDIA alliance, of which Kumar had become a key figure. His exit followed Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress announcing its decision to go solo in West Bengal.
According to Business Standard 's editorial on January 29, Kumar's return to the NDA 'may not change the fortunes of Bihar,' but it effectively 'spells the decimation' of INDIA. The editorial also highlighted internal tensions, including the Congress's failure to consult key allies before launching the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra.
While critics saw Kumar's moves as driven by political expediency, supporters argue they reflect a realism about regional and caste dynamics.
The BJP, for its part, responded with tactical moves—appointing deputy chief ministers from Koeri and Bhumihar communities and affirming commitment to caste inclusion.
Assembly elections overview
The Bihar Legislative Assembly is made up of 243 seats. In the 2020 Assembly elections, the NDA led by the BJP and JD(U), along with partners like VIP and HAM(S), secured a slim majority with 125 seats.
The Mahagathbandhan (RJD–Congress–Left parties) captured 110 seats, with the RJD emerging as the single largest party at 75 seats, closely followed by the BJP at 74 seats, and the JD(U) winning 43.
What next for Nitish Kumar?
Despite his age and repeated suggestions of grooming Tejashwi Yadav as his successor, few are willing to write off Kumar's ability to surprise. As Bihar heads toward elections in 2025, the central question remains: Will Nitish Kumar remain with the NDA, or is another pivot still possible?
Timeline: Nitish Kumar's alliance shifts
1994: Broke from Lalu Prasad Yadav's Janata Dal and founded the Samata Party with George Fernandes.
2000 (March): Became chief minister for the first time, backed by the BJP-led NDA; the government lasted just 7 days.
2003: Formation of Janata Dal (United) through a merger of the Samata Party, Lok Shakti, and a faction of Janata Dal; remained in alliance with the NDA.
2005 & 2010: Won two consecutive full terms as CM in alliance with the BJP, establishing himself as a governance-focused leader.
2013 (June): Split from the NDA after Narendra Modi was named BJP's prime ministerial candidate; distanced himself over ideological concerns and moved toward forming a new alliance.
2014 (May): Resigned after JD(U)'s poor performance in the general elections; Jitan Ram Manjhi briefly took over as CM.
2015 (February): Returned as CM after internal party dissent; later that year, the JD(U), RJD, and Congress formed the Mahagathbandhan, which won the Assembly elections.
2017 (July): Exited the Mahagathbandhan amid corruption charges against RJD leaders and rejoined the NDA; began his sixth term as CM.
2020: Re-elected as CM with NDA support, though the BJP won more seats than JD(U), altering the power balance within the alliance.
2022 (August): Broke ties with the NDA again, accusing the BJP of undermining allies; rejoined the RJD, Congress, and Left parties to form another Mahagathbandhan government—his eighth term.
2024 (January): Left the Mahagathbandhan once more and rejoined the NDA, forming a new government—his ninth term as chief minister.